SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
ABX TSX
Barrick Mining Corp · held position
Last Price (CAD) $58.53
Unrealized G/L -2.2% (−C$850)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 2.03% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $58.92 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Leads S&P/TSX, lags sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 10 weeks (+12.4% relative)
Lagging TSX gold (XGD) for 9 weeks (-5.8% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $60.38 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 05-25, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $60.50–62.12 | +3.4% to +6.1% | high ’25-12-11, LH 04-14, LH 04-08 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $58.92 | +0.7% | 40-wk SMA 58.92 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $55.03 | -6.0% | trend stop; next support $52.60–54.02 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $58.92): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $55.03): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P/TSX, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $52.60–54.02.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Gold: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $57.65 (-1.5%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Est. Up or better; a Friday close back above $58.92 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $55.03 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · ABX (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 58.92 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $57.05–58.48 | -0.1% to -2.5% | low 03-09, low 09-14, low 04-09 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $57.05 | -2.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 55.03–56.28 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $60.38 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 05-25, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 54.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 7.3 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 59.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 54.3 Neutral |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 43.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 48.2 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 43.2 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ABX (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.21% | -3.21% | Est. Up ≥ 57.65 (-1.5%) · Est. Down < 52.72 |
| Trend · XGD | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.33% | +0.22% | Est. Up ≥ 65.76 (+12.4%) · Early Up ≥ 59.97 · Est. Down < 59.65 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.19% | +0.96% | Est. Up ≥ 63.95 (+9.3%) · Early Up ≥ 58.75 · Est. Down < 58.44 |
| Trading · XGD | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.58% | -0.22% | Est. Up ≥ 58.43 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 54.52 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 58.53)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 63.15–64.58 | +7.9% to +10.3% | LH 09-03 63.15 · high ’25-12-22 63.85 · LH 03-10 64.00 · high 03-04 64.58 |
| R2 | 60.50–62.12 | +3.4% to +6.1% | high ’25-12-11 60.50 · LH 04-14 60.62 · LH 04-08 60.71 · LH 09-25 60.80 · LH 06-17 61.38 · LH 09-17 61.52 · LH 08-07 61.55 · LH 09-22 62.12 |
| R1 | 58.63–60.38 | +0.2% to +3.2% | LH 05-25 58.63 · 20-day SMA 58.82 · 40-wk SMA 58.92 · 200-day SMA 59.18 · LH 04-01 59.27 · high 05-29 59.29 · 50-day SMA 59.70 · high 03-17 60.06 · high ’25-12-01 60.14 · LH 06-04 60.38 |
| S1 | 57.05–58.48 | -0.1% to -2.5% | low 03-09 58.48 · low 09-14 58.29 · low 04-09 58.10 · low ’25-12-12 58.00 · low 09-28 57.55 · low 03-16 57.15 · 100-day SMA 57.05 |
| S2 | 55.03–56.28 | -3.8% to -6.0% | low 06-01 56.28 · low ’25-12-04 56.01 · low 05-28 55.81 · low 04-07 55.60 · low 10-08 55.57 · low ’25-12-09 55.45 · low 04-02 55.31 · low 08-10 55.03 |
| S3 | 52.60–54.02 | -7.7% to -10.1% | low 04-23 54.02 · low 05-19 53.94 · channel floor 52.60 |
| Targets | 90.25 · 116.55 | +54.2% · +99.1% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 74.00 → 47.70 pullback · 2-yr channel top 102.62 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 57.05 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 55.03–56.28.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 55.03 (-6.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 52.60–54.02.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 57.65 (-1.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 57.65 · Est. Down < 52.72 (-9.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 63.95 · Early Up ≥ 58.75 · Est. Down < 58.44.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).