BBD-B.TO held card v5

APPENDIX · BBD.B (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 291.29.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$288.57–296.60	-0.3% to -3.0%	low 09-15, wk low 06-12, 40-wk SMA
Trading stop · daily close	below $288.57	-3.0%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 279.52–287.44
Breakout Buy Level	close above $303.25	+1.9%	top of R1 (high 05-07, high 05-26)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 26.7

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	20 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling	2.0 / 20
Band position	6.7 / 10
Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling)	3 / 10
Raw	31.7 (Early Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	26.7 Established Down
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 18.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	8 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	13.4 / 20
Raw	23.9 (Established Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	18.9 Established Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (BBD.B (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	5 Established Down (−) →	-8.74%	-7.31%	Est. Up ≥ 355.34 (+19.4%) · Early Up ≥ 326.59 · Est. Down < 324.85
Trend · ZIN	5 Established Down (−) →	-9.08%	-6.95%	Est. Up ≥ 345.36 (+16.1%) · Early Up ≥ 328.26 · Est. Down < 326.52
Trading · S&P/TSX	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-4.28%	-2.24%	Est. Up ≥ 318.19 (+6.9%) · Early Up ≥ 311.97 · Est. Down < 310.31
Trading · ZIN	5 Established Down (−) →	-3.40%	-0.12%	Est. Up ≥ 344.31 (+15.7%) · Early Up ≥ 308.43 · Est. Down < 306.79

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 297.59)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	318.98–328.00	+7.2% to +10.2%	LH 09-04 318.98 · 50-day SMA 320.80 · 100-day SMA 321.92 · LH 09-28 324.05 · high 08-27 328.00
R2	308.53–317.48	+3.7% to +6.7%	20-day SMA 308.53 · LH 09-15 313.05 · high 06-17 314.90 · high 06-11 316.83 · high 06-15 317.48
R1	299.00–303.25	+0.5% to +1.9%	high 05-07 299.00 · high 05-26 303.25
S1	288.57–296.60	-0.3% to -3.0%	low 09-15 296.60 · wk low 06-12 292.20 · 40-wk SMA 291.29 · low 09-08 290.00 · low 05-27 289.92 · 200-day SMA 288.57
S2	279.52–287.44	-3.4% to -6.1%	low 09-01 287.44 · 61.8% 280.27 · channel floor 279.52
S3	278.09–278.09	-6.6% to -6.6%	low 05-04 278.09
Targets	433.59 · 523.92	+45.7% · +76.1%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 377.77 → 287.44 pullback · 2-yr channel top 549.74

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 288.57 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 279.52–287.44.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 279.52 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 278.09–278.09.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 355.34 (+19.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 326.59 · Est. Down < 324.85 (+9.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 318.19 · Early Up ≥ 311.97 · Est. Down < 310.31.

Sluymer context

CB Sep 8 p59: “BBD.B is oversold short-term and bouncing from a support/stop loss level near its rising 200-day ma and 50-62% retracement band between 280-299. Resistance is at 340 then 377 with next support at 257-260 then 220.”
CB Sep 15 p53: “BBD.B remains in a correction but is showing early signs of bottoming near support at its rising red 200-day ma.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Class B shares mapped to BBD-B.TO (Sluymer: BBD.B). Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $303.25	+1.9%	top of R1 (high 05-07, high 05-26)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$308.53–317.48	+3.7% to +6.7%	20-day SMA, LH 09-15, high 06-17
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $291.29	-2.1%	40-wk SMA 291.29
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $279.52	-6.1%	trend stop; next support $278.09–278.09

BBD.B TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders