SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
BMO TSX
Bank of Montreal · held position
Last Price (CAD) $232.10
Unrealized G/L +50.9% (+C$28,094)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 4.59% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $220.01 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 8 weeks (-7.3% relative)
Lagging TSX financials (XFN) for 2 weeks (-1.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $244.80 | +5.5% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, 100-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $249.59–249.59 | +7.5% to +7.5% | LH 09-22 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $220.01 | -5.2% | 40-wk SMA 220.01 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $218.31 | -5.9% | trend stop; next support $204.57–210.44 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $220.01): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $218.31): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $204.57–210.44.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “BMO’s pause/pullback continues with major support closer to 220”; banks “remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $244.20 (+5.2%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below $220.01 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · BMO (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 220.01.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $232.00–232.00 | -0.0% to -0.0% | low 10-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $232.00 | -0.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 218.31–220.42 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $244.80 | +5.5% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, 100-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 37.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 9.9 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 42.9 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 37.9 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 25.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 30.3 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 25.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BMO (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.42% | -4.50% | Est. Up ≥ 268.68 (+15.8%) · Early Up ≥ 245.50 · Est. Down < 244.20 |
| Trend · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.60% | -1.69% | Est. Up ≥ 241.99 (+4.3%) · Early Up ≥ 236.24 · Est. Down < 234.98 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.93% | -1.78% | Est. Up ≥ 267.73 (+15.4%) · Early Up ≥ 239.23 · Est. Down < 237.95 |
| Trading · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.99% | -0.47% | Est. Up ≥ 243.72 (+5.0%) · Early Up ≥ 234.89 · Est. Down < 233.64 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 232.10)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 258.21–259.20 | +11.2% to +11.7% | high 07-17 258.21 · ATH 08-17 259.20 |
| R2 | 249.59–249.59 | +7.5% to +7.5% | LH 09-22 249.59 |
| R1 | 239.51–244.80 | +3.2% to +5.5% | 20-day SMA 239.51 · 100-day SMA 242.09 · 50-day SMA 243.38 · LH 09-14 244.42 · LH 09-28 244.59 · LH 09-04 244.80 |
| S1 | 232.00–232.00 | -0.0% to -0.0% | low 10-01 232.00 |
| S2 | 218.31–220.42 | -5.0% to -5.9% | channel floor 220.42 · 40-wk SMA 220.01 · 50% 219.75 · 200-day SMA 218.31 |
| S3 | 204.57–210.44 | -9.3% to -11.9% | 61.8% 210.44 · wk high 02-27 204.57 |
| Targets | 279.04 · 311.14 | +20.2% · +34.1% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 259.20 → 227.10 pullback · 2-yr channel top 278.41 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 232.00 (-0.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 218.31–220.42.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 218.31 (-5.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 204.57–210.44.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 268.68 (+15.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 245.50 · Est. Down < 244.20 (+5.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 267.73 · Early Up ≥ 239.23 · Est. Down < 237.95.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p58: “BMO’s consolidation at overbought levels… continues holding first support at its yellow 100-day ma near 232 with next support at the red 200-day ma near 211.”
- CB Oct 6: “Banks (BMO, NA) remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p63: TSX Bank Index momentum “has yet to move back to oversold levels suggesting further choppy trading well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p64: “BMO’s pause/pullback continues with major support closer to 220.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).