SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
CNQ TSX
Canadian Natural Resources · held position
Last Price (CAD) $70.80
Unrealized G/L +77.2% (+C$20,388)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 2.58% (Canada)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($74.06–76.24); review on a Friday close below $67.08.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 9 weeks (+13.8% relative)
Leading TSX energy (XEG) for 12 weeks (+2.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $72.35 | +2.2% | top of R1 (high 08-24, high 03-30) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $74.06–76.24 | +4.6% to +7.7% | 127.2% ext., 161.8% ext. |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $67.08 | -5.3% | floor of first-support band S1 (67.08) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $64.64 | -8.7% | trend stop; next support $62.20–64.11 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $67.08): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $64.64): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P/TSX, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $62.20–64.11.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “CNQ is also pausing near its Q2 highs with the recent pullback becoming oversold and bouncing from first support near its 50-day ma near 68” (CB Sep 29).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $66.09 (-6.7%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $67.08 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · CNQ (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (67.08); the 40-wk SMA 62.29 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $67.08–69.07 | -2.4% to -5.3% | low 09-04, 20-day SMA, wk high 05-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $67.08 | -5.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 64.64–66.24 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $72.35 | +2.2% | top of R1 (high 08-24, high 03-30) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 80.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 30 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.4 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 85.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 80.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 66.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 71.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 66.3 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CNQ (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +8.33% | +5.81% | Est. Up ≥ 66.09 (-6.7%) · Est. Down < 49.56 |
| Trend · XEG | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.50% | +0.64% | Est. Up ≥ 70.74 (-0.1%) · Est. Down < 68.19 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.67% | +3.34% | Est. Up ≥ 68.56 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 65.01 |
| Trading · XEG | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.44% | +0.12% | Est. Up ≥ 70.75 (-0.1%) · Early Up ≥ 70.68 · Est. Down < 70.30 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 70.80)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 80.78–82.54 | +14.1% to +16.6% | channel top 80.78 · 261.8% ext. 82.54 |
| R2 | 74.06–76.24 | +4.6% to +7.7% | 127.2% ext. 74.06 · 161.8% ext. 76.24 |
| R1 | 70.90–72.35 | +0.1% to +2.2% | high 08-24 70.90 · high 03-30 70.99 · LH 09-15 72.08 · high 09-01 72.29 · ATH 09-10 72.35 |
| S1 | 67.08–69.07 | -2.4% to -5.3% | low 09-04 69.07 · 20-day SMA 68.67 · wk high 05-22 68.45 · low 09-11 68.42 · 50-day SMA 68.38 · low 08-28 67.56 · low 10-07 67.36 · wk high 06-05 67.08 |
| S2 | 64.64–66.24 | -6.4% to -8.7% | low 09-22 66.24 · low 09-29 66.05 · 100-day SMA 64.99 · low 03-23 64.64 |
| S3 | 62.20–64.11 | -9.4% to -12.1% | low 04-01 64.11 · low 08-07 62.37 · 40-wk SMA 62.29 · low 07-28 62.20 |
| Targets | 76.24 · 82.54 | +7.7% · +16.6% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 72.35 → 66.05 pullback · 2-yr channel top 80.78 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 67.08 (-5.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 64.64–66.24.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 64.64 (-8.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 62.20–64.11.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 66.09 (-6.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 66.09 · Est. Down < 49.56 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 68.56 · Est. Down < 65.01.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 15 p52: “CNQ is starting to consolidate at its 162% extension level near 70. First support is 68 then 65 at its rising 50-day ma.”
- CB Sep 22 p52: “CNQ is also pausing at resistance with a pullback underway with support starting at 65 then 62-64.”
- CB Sep 29 p53: “CNQ is also pausing near its Q2 highs with the recent pullback becoming oversold and bouncing from first support near its 50-day ma near 68.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).