SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
CP TSX
Canadian Pacific Kansas City · held position
Last Price (CAD) $120.58
Unrealized G/L +71.6% (+C$15,541)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 2.07% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $118.58 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 6 weeks (-5.5% relative)
Lagging TSX industrials (ZIN) for 4 weeks (-5.9% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $125.89 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk high 03-06, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $126.66–127.78 | +5.0% to +6.0% | high 05-27, high 06-15, LH 09-04 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $118.58 | -1.7% | 40-wk SMA 118.58 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $112.51 | -6.7% | trend stop; next support $109.50–110.90 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $118.58): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $112.51): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $109.50–110.90.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Peer rails: “Rails, like CSX, are becoming oversold short-term with early signs of bottoming near support” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $125.63 (+4.2%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below $118.58 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · CP (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 118.58.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $117.72–120.10 | -0.4% to -2.4% | low 06-17, low 10-01, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $117.72 | -2.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 112.51–115.19 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $125.89 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk high 03-06, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 28.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 8.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 33.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 28.2 Established Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 22.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 27.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 22.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CP (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.31% | -1.51% | Est. Up ≥ 129.50 (+7.4%) · Early Up ≥ 126.30 · Est. Down < 125.63 |
| Trend · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.73% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 127.04 (+5.4%) · Est. Down < 125.68 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.42% | -0.75% | Est. Up ≥ 123.88 (+2.7%) · Early Up ≥ 122.76 · Est. Down < 122.10 |
| Trading · ZIN | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.51% | +1.39% | Est. Up ≥ 134.38 (+11.4%) · Early Up ≥ 121.37 · Est. Down < 120.72 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 120.58)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 131.89–133.38 | +9.4% to +10.6% | high 07-20 131.89 · ATH 08-21 133.38 |
| R2 | 126.66–127.78 | +5.0% to +6.0% | high 05-27 126.66 · high 06-15 127.50 · LH 09-04 127.78 |
| R1 | 122.25–125.89 | +1.4% to +4.4% | wk high 03-06 122.25 · 20-day SMA 122.40 · LH 10-05 123.20 · 100-day SMA 125.41 · LH 09-14 125.56 · 50-day SMA 125.67 · LH 09-24 125.89 |
| S1 | 117.72–120.10 | -0.4% to -2.4% | low 06-17 120.10 · low 10-01 119.12 · 40-wk SMA 118.58 · 200-day SMA 117.72 |
| S2 | 112.51–115.19 | -4.5% to -6.7% | 50% 115.19 · low 05-04 112.51 |
| S3 | 109.50–110.90 | -8.0% to -9.2% | 61.8% 110.90 · low 03-09 110.36 · low 04-16 109.59 · wk high ’25-10-10 109.50 |
| Targets | 142.28 · 156.68 | +18.0% · +29.9% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 133.38 → 118.98 pullback · 2-yr channel top 135.85 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 117.72 (-2.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 112.51–115.19.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 112.51 (-6.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 109.50–110.90.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 129.50 (+7.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 126.30 · Est. Down < 125.63 (+4.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 123.88 · Early Up ≥ 122.76 · Est. Down < 122.10.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “Rails, like CSX, are becoming oversold short-term with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).