SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
DOL TSX
Dollarama Inc · held position
Last Price (CAD) $191.93
Unrealized G/L +91.2% (+C$27,549)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.18% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $184.20 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Leads S&P/TSX and sector; above falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 2 weeks (+5.0% relative)
Leading TSX staples (XST) for 3 weeks (+10.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $196.34 | +2.3% | top of R1 (LH 07-20, LH 06-18) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $198.99–204.35 | +3.7% to +6.5% | LH 03-10, LH 03-17, LH 06-12 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $184.20 | -4.0% | 40-wk SMA 184.20 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $180.64 | -5.9% | trend stop; next support $174.26–179.33 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $184.20): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $180.64): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P/TSX, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $174.26–179.33.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports, and no TSX staples call; peer Loblaw was “rallying from short-term oversold levels” (CB Sep 8).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $183.90 (-4.2%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Early Up or better; a Friday close below $184.20 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · DOL (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 184.20.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $185.60–191.11 | -0.4% to -3.3% | low 02-23, low 01-21, low 03-09 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $185.60 | -3.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 180.64–185.18 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $196.34 | +2.3% | top of R1 (LH 07-20, LH 06-18) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 43.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 16 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.1 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 48.5 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 43.5 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 54.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 19 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 59.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 54.4 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DOL (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 2 Early Up (+) → | +4.14% | +4.95% | Est. Up ≥ 196.41 (+2.3%) · Early Up ≥ 183.90 · Est. Down < 182.92 |
| Trend · XST | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.41% | +5.41% | Est. Up ≥ 179.18 (-6.6%) · Est. Down < 166.87 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.09% | +3.13% | Est. Up ≥ 185.41 (-3.4%) · Est. Down < 138.76 |
| Trading · XST | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.44% | +1.64% | Est. Up ≥ 184.75 (-3.7%) · Est. Down < 141.31 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 191.93)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 207.78–209.96 | +8.3% to +9.4% | LH 01-02 207.78 · ATH ’25-12-11 209.96 |
| R2 | 198.99–204.35 | +3.7% to +6.5% | LH 03-10 198.99 · LH 03-17 199.03 · LH 06-12 200.99 · high 03-04 201.49 · LH 01-13 202.49 · LH 02-27 203.50 · high ’25-11-26 204.35 |
| R1 | 191.94–196.34 | +0.0% to +2.3% | LH 07-20 191.94 · LH 06-18 192.37 · LH 07-28 193.14 · LH 08-13 193.65 · LH 08-06 194.37 · LH 06-26 195.48 · LH 02-18 195.84 · LH 02-05 196.34 |
| S1 | 185.60–191.11 | -0.4% to -3.3% | low 02-23 191.11 · low 01-21 191.04 · low 03-09 190.09 · low 08-04 187.95 · low 02-11 185.89 · low 08-18 185.60 |
| S2 | 180.64–185.18 | -3.5% to -5.9% | 50% 185.18 · low 07-06 184.95 · 200-day SMA 184.88 · low 06-22 184.77 · 40-wk SMA 184.20 · 100-day SMA 183.47 · low 07-09 183.00 · low 01-30 182.69 · 50-day SMA 182.46 · low 10-02 181.67 · low 07-24 181.05 · 20-day SMA 180.64 |
| S3 | 174.26–179.33 | -6.6% to -9.2% | 61.8% 179.33 · low ’25-11-03 178.72 · low 06-10 177.08 · low ’25-10-14 174.26 |
| Targets | 238.83 · 285.54 | +24.4% · +48.8% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 209.96 → 163.25 pullback · 2-yr channel top 238.09 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 185.60 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 180.64–185.18.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 180.64 (-5.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 174.26–179.33.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 196.41 (+2.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 183.90 · Est. Down < 182.92 (-4.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 185.41 · Est. Down < 138.76.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8: “L is again rallying from short-term oversold levels near key support and stop loss level at 60.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XST (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Sector proxy XST (iShares TSX capped consumer staples). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).