SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
ENB TSX
Enbridge Inc · held position
Last Price (CAD) $66.51
Unrealized G/L +6.0% (+C$3,320)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.27% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $72.69 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 11 weeks (-17.8% relative)
Lagging TSX energy (XEG) for 12 weeks (-25.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $68.53 | +3.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, LH 09-18) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $68.80–70.83 | +3.4% to +6.5% | high ’25-12-02, 50-day SMA, LH 09-09 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $72.69 | +9.3% | 40-wk SMA 72.69 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $62.42 | -6.1% | trend stop; next support $59.68–59.68 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $72.69): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $62.42): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $59.68–59.68.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “ENB’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold as it shows very early signs of bottoming at the upper end of its 61.5-66 support band” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $71.06 (+6.8%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $72.69 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $62.42 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · ENB (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 72.69 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $64.86–66.06 | -0.7% to -2.5% | low 09-11, low 09-25, low 10-05 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $64.86 | -2.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 62.42–64.04 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $68.53 | +3.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, LH 09-18) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 20.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.5 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 25.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 20.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 21.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 21.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ENB (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.46% | +0.96% | Early Up ≥ 71.44 · Est. Down < 71.06 |
| Trend · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) → | -14.74% | -3.98% | Early Up ≥ 76.88 · Est. Down < 76.48 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.11% | +0.43% | Est. Up ≥ 69.07 (+3.8%) · Early Up ≥ 66.73 · Est. Down < 66.38 |
| Trading · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.25% | -2.71% | Est. Up ≥ 74.73 (+12.4%) · Early Up ≥ 68.81 · Est. Down < 68.45 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 66.51)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 71.59–73.71 | +7.6% to +10.8% | LH 08-18 71.59 · 200-day SMA 72.31 · LH 08-11 72.49 · 40-wk SMA 72.69 · 100-day SMA 73.67 · high 02-13 73.71 |
| R2 | 68.80–70.83 | +3.4% to +6.5% | high ’25-12-02 68.80 · 50-day SMA 69.14 · LH 09-09 70.01 · wk high ’25-10-03 70.39 · LH 09-01 70.83 |
| R1 | 66.72–68.53 | +0.3% to +3.0% | 20-day SMA 66.72 · LH 09-18 68.53 |
| S1 | 64.86–66.06 | -0.7% to -2.5% | low 09-11 66.06 · low 09-25 65.76 · low 10-05 64.86 |
| S2 | 62.42–64.04 | -3.7% to -6.1% | low ’25-11-07 64.04 · low ’25-12-17 63.67 · wk low 01-09 62.42 |
| S3 | 59.68–59.68 | -10.3% to -10.3% | wk low ’25-07-11 59.68 |
| Targets | 90.41 · 106.20 | +35.9% · +59.7% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 80.65 → 64.86 pullback · 2-yr channel top 83.08 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 64.86 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 62.42–64.04.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 62.42 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 59.68–59.68.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 71.44 · Est. Down < 71.06 (+6.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 69.07 · Early Up ≥ 66.73 · Est. Down < 66.38.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 22 p54: “ENB is weak but becoming oversold nearing a broad band of support between 62-66 where we expect it will bottom.”
- CB Sep 29: “FTS, H, ENB and TRP remain weak in corrections but are becoming oversold nearing support bands where we expect them to bottom.”
- CB Sep 29 p58: “ENB also remains weak as its correction becomes oversold testing next support at 66.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13 p61: “ENB’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold as it shows very early signs of bottoming at the upper end of its 61.5-66 support band.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).