SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
L TSX
Loblaw Cos Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $62.64
Unrealized G/L +57.8% (+C$21,257)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.25% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $63.15 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P/TSX, leads sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 10 weeks (-6.0% relative)
Leading TSX staples (XST) for 6 weeks (+4.2% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $63.77 | +1.8% | top of R1 (LH 04-21, LH 04-27) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $64.74–66.50 | +3.4% to +6.2% | LH 03-17, LH 04-08, LH 07-13 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $63.15 | +0.8% | 40-wk SMA 63.15 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $58.84 | -6.1% | trend stop; next support $52.92–54.44 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $63.15): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $58.84): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $52.92–54.44.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. Last named Sep 8: “L is again rallying from short-term oversold levels near key support and stop loss level at 60” (CB Sep 8).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $62.35 (-0.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $63.15 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $58.84 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · L (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 63.15 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $60.73–62.33 | -0.5% to -3.0% | 20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, low 03-02 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $60.73 | -3.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 58.84–60.42 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $63.77 | +1.8% | top of R1 (LH 04-21, LH 04-27) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 28.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.5 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 33.5 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 28.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 53.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 58.7 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 53.7 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (L (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.26% | +0.27% | Est. Up ≥ 69.95 (+11.7%) · Early Up ≥ 62.68 · Est. Down < 62.35 |
| Trend · XST | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.88% | +0.71% | Est. Up ≥ 61.07 (-2.5%) · Est. Down < 59.88 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 3 Neutral (+) → | +0.23% | +1.96% | Est. Up ≥ 62.72 (+0.1%) · Est. Down < 59.47 |
| Trading · XST | 1 Established Up (+) → | +0.57% | +0.49% | Est. Up ≥ 62.50 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 60.28 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 62.64)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 66.81–67.56 | +6.7% to +7.9% | LH 06-25 66.81 · LH 07-28 66.94 · LH 07-31 66.97 · LH 06-11 67.56 |
| R2 | 64.74–66.50 | +3.4% to +6.2% | LH 03-17 64.74 · LH 04-08 65.27 · LH 07-13 65.34 · LH 06-18 65.57 · LH 07-20 66.50 |
| R1 | 62.66–63.77 | +0.0% to +1.8% | LH 04-21 62.66 · LH 04-27 62.90 · LH 08-13 62.94 · 200-day SMA 63.10 · 100-day SMA 63.12 · 40-wk SMA 63.15 · LH 05-05 63.30 · LH 09-29 63.38 · LH 09-10 63.40 · high ’25-11-25 63.43 · LH 09-04 63.53 · LH 03-10 63.77 |
| S1 | 60.73–62.33 | -0.5% to -3.0% | 20-day SMA 62.33 · 50-day SMA 62.26 · low 03-02 62.00 · low 03-27 61.93 · low 09-25 61.83 · low 03-05 61.52 · low 04-28 61.50 · low 08-12 61.45 · low 03-20 61.41 · channel floor 61.32 · 50% 61.25 · low 07-06 61.05 · low 09-10 60.95 · low 10-06 60.94 · low 01-27 60.84 · low 06-02 60.74 · low 04-17 60.73 |
| S2 | 58.84–60.42 | -3.5% to -6.1% | low ’25-12-12 60.42 · low 05-19 60.28 · low 08-21 60.26 · low 05-26 60.15 · low 08-31 59.96 · low 05-06 59.63 · 61.8% 59.29 · low 05-11 58.84 |
| S3 | 52.92–54.44 | -13.1% to -15.5% | wk low ’25-10-31 54.44 · low ’25-10-07 52.92 |
| Targets | 76.23 · 86.98 | +21.7% · +38.9% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 69.59 → 58.84 pullback · 2-yr channel top 76.33 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 60.73 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 58.84–60.42.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 58.84 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 52.92–54.44.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 69.95 (+11.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 62.68 · Est. Down < 62.35 (-0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 62.72 · Est. Down < 59.47.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8: “L is oversold short-term at a key support/stop level with a rally taking hold.”
- CB Sep 8 p63: “L is again rallying from short-term oversold levels near key support and stop loss level at 60.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XST (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Sector proxy XST (iShares TSX capped consumer staples). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).