SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
MDA TSX
MDA Space Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $40.18
Unrealized G/L +19.0% (+C$5,428)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 1.84% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $44.07 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 14 weeks (-33.1% relative)
Lagging TSX industrials (ZIN) for 14 weeks (-32.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $41.70 | +3.8% | top of R1 (high 02-20, high 01-29) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $41.88–43.12 | +4.2% to +7.3% | high 09-08, LH 09-10, high 03-02 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $44.07 | +9.7% | 40-wk SMA 44.07 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $38.15 | -5.1% | trend stop; next support $36.23–37.08 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $44.07): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $38.15): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $36.23–37.08.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports, and no TSX industrials/space call.
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $43.96 (+9.4%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $44.07 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $38.15 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · MDA (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 44.07 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $38.82–39.85 | -0.8% to -3.4% | low 07-28, low 04-30, low 03-09 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $38.82 | -3.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 38.15–38.48 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $41.70 | +3.8% | top of R1 (high 02-20, high 01-29) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 20.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 6.4 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 25.4 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 20.4 Established Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 13.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 18.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 13.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MDA (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.78% | -9.53% | Early Up ≥ 44.20 · Est. Down < 43.96 |
| Trend · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -10.06% | -9.17% | Early Up ≥ 44.41 · Est. Down < 44.17 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -6.03% | -6.40% | Est. Up ≥ 48.71 (+21.2%) · Early Up ≥ 42.77 · Est. Down < 42.54 |
| Trading · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.17% | -4.38% | Est. Up ≥ 52.34 (+30.3%) · Early Up ≥ 42.29 · Est. Down < 42.06 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 40.18)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 43.30–44.11 | +7.8% to +9.8% | high 10-02 43.30 · LH 10-06 43.58 · 200-day SMA 43.70 · 40-wk SMA 44.07 · high 03-05 44.11 |
| R2 | 41.88–43.12 | +4.2% to +7.3% | high 09-08 41.88 · LH 09-10 41.98 · high 03-02 42.05 · 20-day SMA 42.26 · LH 08-26 42.40 · high 09-17 43.04 · high 05-01 43.09 · 50-day SMA 43.12 |
| R1 | 40.58–41.70 | +1.0% to +3.8% | high 02-20 40.58 · high 01-29 41.43 · high 04-06 41.70 |
| S1 | 38.82–39.85 | -0.8% to -3.4% | low 07-28 39.85 · low 04-30 39.61 · low 03-09 39.43 · low 03-04 39.28 · low 09-11 39.13 · low 04-07 39.08 · 61.8% 38.82 |
| S2 | 38.15–38.48 | -4.2% to -5.1% | low 10-08 38.48 · low 09-02 38.15 |
| S3 | 36.23–37.08 | -7.7% to -9.8% | low 02-02 37.08 · low 02-23 36.71 · low 03-25 36.23 |
| Targets | 86.29 · 116.04 | +114.7% · +188.8% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 67.90 → 38.15 pullback · 2-yr channel top 69.61 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 38.82 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 38.15–38.48.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 38.15 (-5.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 36.23–37.08.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 44.20 · Est. Down < 43.96 (+9.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 48.71 · Early Up ≥ 42.77 · Est. Down < 42.54.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).