SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
NTR TSX
Nutrien Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $96.33
Unrealized G/L +17.8% (+C$8,010)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.05% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $98.00 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 1 week (-4.1% relative)
Lagging TSX materials (XMA) for 3 weeks (-6.2% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $100.11 | +3.9% | top of R1 (LH 06-02, LH 07-14) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $100.76–103.59 | +4.6% to +7.5% | LH 2022-07-08, LH 2023-04-03, 50-day SMA |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $98.00 | +1.7% | 40-wk SMA 98.00 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $90.35 | -6.2% | trend stop; next support $89.50–89.50 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $98.00): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $90.35): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $89.50–89.50.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “NTR’s pullback continues challenging its next support range between 96-99”; “deeply oversold short-term… which we expect will lead to a rebound” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $82.41 (-14.5%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Early Down or better; a Friday close back above $98.00 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $90.35 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · NTR (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 98.00 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $93.26–96.10 | -0.2% to -3.2% | low 2023-01-04, low 05-22, low 2023-04-13 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $93.26 | -3.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 90.35–92.81 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $100.11 | +3.9% | top of R1 (LH 06-02, LH 07-14) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 30.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 5.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 8.5 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 35.1 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 30.1 Early Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 20.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 6 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 25.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 20.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NTR (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.70% | -5.37% | Est. Up ≥ 98.92 (+2.7%) · Est. Down < 82.41 |
| Trend · XMA | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.22% | -2.50% | Est. Up ≥ 102.12 (+6.0%) · Est. Down < 98.09 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.37% | -4.99% | Est. Up ≥ 123.58 (+28.3%) · Early Up ≥ 101.95 · Est. Down < 101.40 |
| Trading · XMA | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.45% | -5.47% | Est. Up ≥ 109.03 (+13.2%) · Early Up ≥ 101.14 · Est. Down < 100.60 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 96.33)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 104.31–107.21 | +8.3% to +11.3% | LH 2023-03-21 104.31 · LH 2023-01-10 104.66 · LH 08-24 105.23 · high 04-09 105.37 · LH 05-05 105.90 · LH 2023-01-18 106.26 · LH 03-02 106.38 · LH 09-24 107.21 |
| R2 | 100.76–103.59 | +4.6% to +7.5% | LH 2022-07-08 100.76 · LH 2023-04-03 101.31 · 50-day SMA 101.80 · LH 2022-12-21 102.45 · 20-day SMA 103.33 · LH 10-07 103.59 |
| R1 | 97.35–100.11 | +1.1% to +3.9% | LH 06-02 97.35 · LH 07-14 97.42 · 100-day SMA 97.55 · LH 02-04 97.68 · 200-day SMA 97.77 · 40-wk SMA 98.00 · LH 01-26 98.37 · LH 07-23 98.39 · LH 05-22 98.60 · LH 01-29 98.67 · LH 05-19 99.29 · LH 07-30 99.37 · LH 05-13 99.64 · LH 2022-07-13 99.76 · LH 02-12 99.79 · LH 04-22 100.10 · LH 2023-04-12 100.11 |
| S1 | 93.26–96.10 | -0.2% to -3.2% | low 2023-01-04 96.10 · low 05-22 95.94 · low 2023-04-13 95.69 · low 2022-11-03 95.49 · low 04-17 94.78 · low 02-17 94.51 · low 05-29 93.72 · low 2022-07-06 93.71 · low 2022-07-14 93.43 · channel floor 93.40 · low 05-07 93.26 |
| S2 | 90.35–92.81 | -3.7% to -6.2% | low 07-20 92.81 · low 01-30 92.76 · low 02-06 92.64 · low 08-04 91.60 · low 2023-04-06 91.08 · low 07-10 91.04 · low 06-10 90.35 |
| S3 | 89.50–89.50 | -7.1% to -7.1% | low 08-06 89.50 |
| Targets | 201.81 · 289.00 | +109.5% · +200.0% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 147.93 → 60.74 pullback · 2-yr channel top 118.53 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 93.26 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 90.35–92.81.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 90.35 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 89.50–89.50.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 98.92 (+2.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 98.92 · Est. Down < 82.41 (-14.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 123.58 · Early Up ≥ 101.95 · Est. Down < 101.40.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 29 p54: “NTR’s pullback from resistance near 115 continues… as it approaches support between 96-99.”
- CB Oct 6 p69: “NTR stalled at its 62% retracement level of the 2022-2024 decline… with the recent pullback oversold and back to support at its 50-62% retracement level of the Q3 rebound where we expect it to bottom.”
- CB Oct 13 p67: “NTR’s pullback continues challenging its next support range between 96-99. While some further weakness is possible, NTR is deeply oversold short-term based on its daily momentum (top right panel) which we expect will lead to a rebound.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).