SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
NXE TSX
NexGen Energy Ltd · held position
Last Price (CAD) $12.51
Unrealized G/L -8.1% (−C$2,496)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 1.56% (Canada)
REDUCETrend impaired: Est. Down below a falling 40-wk SMA ($15.03). Trim or exit if the story has also weakened.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 5 weeks (-14.0% relative)
Lagging TSX energy (XEG) for 9 weeks (-23.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $13.10 | +4.7% | top of R1 (high ’25-10-01, high ’25-10-07) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $13.21–13.51 | +5.6% to +8.0% | high ’25-12-11, high ’25-12-23, high 07-15 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $15.03 | +20.1% | 40-wk SMA 15.03 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $11.95 | -4.5% | trend stop; next support $11.58–11.58 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $15.03): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $11.95): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $11.58–11.58.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Peer Cameco: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow” (CB Aug 18).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $13.49 (+7.8%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $15.03 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $11.95 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · NXE (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 15.03 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $12.15–12.50 | -0.1% to -2.9% | low 10-01, low ’25-12-10, low 07-29 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $12.15 | -2.9% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 11.95–12.04 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $13.10 | +4.7% | top of R1 (high ’25-10-01, high ’25-10-07) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 14.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 9.7 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 19.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 14.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 28.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 11 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 33.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 28.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NXE (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.68% | -3.55% | Est. Up ≥ 16.77 (+34.1%) · Early Up ≥ 13.56 · Est. Down < 13.49 |
| Trend · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) → | -14.79% | -8.26% | Early Up ≥ 14.57 · Est. Down < 14.50 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.29% | -6.75% | Est. Up ≥ 14.81 (+18.4%) · Early Up ≥ 13.07 · Est. Down < 13.00 |
| Trading · XEG | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.34% | -9.66% | Est. Up ≥ 15.94 (+27.4%) · Early Up ≥ 13.48 · Est. Down < 13.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 12.51)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 13.75–14.15 | +9.9% to +13.1% | high ’25-10-15 13.75 · LH 10-06 13.84 · 50-day SMA 13.89 · high ’25-12-04 13.92 · high ’25-10-31 13.96 · LH 07-06 14.07 · LH 09-22 14.15 |
| R2 | 13.21–13.51 | +5.6% to +8.0% | high ’25-12-11 13.21 · high ’25-12-23 13.25 · high 07-15 13.37 · LH 09-30 13.38 · LH 07-22 13.51 |
| R1 | 12.80–13.10 | +2.3% to +4.7% | high ’25-10-01 12.80 · high ’25-10-07 13.00 · 20-day SMA 13.07 · high ’25-09-29 13.10 |
| S1 | 12.15–12.50 | -0.1% to -2.9% | low 10-01 12.50 · low ’25-12-10 12.40 · low 07-29 12.37 · low ’25-09-30 12.29 · low 10-08 12.15 |
| S2 | 11.95–12.04 | -3.8% to -4.5% | low 07-17 12.04 · low ’25-10-02 11.97 · low ’25-10-08 11.95 |
| S3 | 11.58–11.58 | -7.4% to -7.4% | low ’25-10-27 11.58 |
| Targets | 23.16 · 30.03 | +85.1% · +140.0% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 18.91 → 12.04 pullback · 2-yr channel top 23.49 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 12.15 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 11.95–12.04.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 11.95 (-4.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 11.58–11.58.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 16.77 (+34.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 13.56 · Est. Down < 13.49 (+7.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 14.81 · Early Up ≥ 13.07 · Est. Down < 13.00.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p58: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).