SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
PPL TSX
Pembina Pipeline Corp · held position
Last Price (CAD) $67.55
Unrealized G/L +3.0% (+C$1,060)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 2.03% (Canada)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($72.72–74.89); review on a Friday close below $63.73.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Leads S&P/TSX, lags sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 1 week (+2.7% relative)
Lagging TSX energy (XEG) for 9 weeks (-9.8% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $69.42 | +2.8% | top of R1 (LH 09-01, LH 09-10) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $72.72–74.89 | +7.7% to +10.9% | ATH 07-24, channel top |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $63.73 | -5.6% | 40-wk SMA 63.73 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $63.73 | -5.7% | trend stop; next support $61.44–63.13 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $63.73): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $63.73): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P/TSX, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $61.44–63.13.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “PPL’s rebound from its rising 200-day ma continues” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $67.29 (-0.4%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Early Up or better; a Friday close below $63.73 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · PPL (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 63.73.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $65.30–67.30 | -0.4% to -3.3% | 100-day SMA, low 08-19, 50-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $65.30 | -3.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 63.73–65.14 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $69.42 | +2.8% | top of R1 (LH 09-01, LH 09-10) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 49.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — negative & falling | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 8.4 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 54.8 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 49.8 Neutral |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 82.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 87.8 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 82.8 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PPL (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.55% | +7.29% | Est. Up ≥ 67.51 (-0.1%) · Early Up ≥ 67.29 · Est. Down < 66.93 |
| Trend · XEG | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.10% | +2.05% | Early Up ≥ 72.28 · Est. Down < 71.89 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.63% | +1.73% | Est. Up ≥ 65.41 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 61.33 |
| Trading · XEG | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +0.40% | -1.44% | Est. Up ≥ 67.42 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 66.81 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 67.55)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 75.45–75.45 | +11.7% to +11.7% | 127.2% ext. 75.45 |
| R2 | 72.72–74.89 | +7.7% to +10.9% | ATH 07-24 72.72 · channel top 74.89 |
| R1 | 68.56–69.42 | +1.5% to +2.8% | LH 09-01 68.56 · LH 09-10 68.63 · LH 08-19 68.92 · high 05-21 69.10 · high 06-11 69.42 |
| S1 | 65.30–67.30 | -0.4% to -3.3% | 100-day SMA 67.30 · low 08-19 66.74 · 50-day SMA 66.63 · low 09-04 66.35 · low 08-26 66.25 · low 08-10 66.09 · low 08-05 65.95 · 20-day SMA 65.30 |
| S2 | 63.73–65.14 | -3.6% to -5.7% | low 09-15 65.14 · wk high 04-03 64.27 · low 05-29 64.02 · low 06-18 63.92 · 40-wk SMA 63.73 |
| S3 | 61.44–63.13 | -6.5% to -9.0% | 200-day SMA 63.13 · low 09-29 62.68 · 50% 61.44 |
| Targets | 78.92 · 88.96 | +16.8% · +31.7% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 72.72 → 62.68 pullback · 2-yr channel top 74.89 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 65.30 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 63.73–65.14.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 63.73 (-5.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 61.44–63.13.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 67.51 (-0.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 67.29 · Est. Down < 66.93 (-0.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 65.41 · Est. Down < 61.33.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “TRP and PPL are showing early signs of bottoming at support.”
- CB Oct 6 p68: “PPL is also showing early signs of stabilizing at its rising red 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 p63: “PPL’s rebound from its rising 200-day ma continues.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).