SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
RY TSX
Royal Bank of Canada · held position
Last Price (CAD) $273.78
Unrealized G/L +127.8% (+C$35,482)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.50% (Canada)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $260.61 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 8 weeks (-6.2% relative)
Lagging TSX financials (XFN) for 4 weeks (-1.3% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $288.40 | +5.3% | top of R1 (LH 10-06, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $289.25–293.87 | +5.7% to +7.3% | LH 08-26, LH 09-22, LH 09-04 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $260.61 | -4.8% | 40-wk SMA 260.61 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $259.52 | -5.2% | trend stop; next support $251.15–253.42 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $260.61): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $259.52): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $251.15–253.42.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: Canadian banks “remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4” (CB Oct 6).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $287.25 (+4.9%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below $260.61 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · RY (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 260.61.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $272.85–272.85 | -0.3% to -0.3% | low 10-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $272.85 | -0.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 259.52–261.69 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $288.40 | +5.3% | top of R1 (LH 10-06, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 37.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 9.0 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 42.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 37.0 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 23.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 28.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 23.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RY (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.06% | -3.78% | Est. Up ≥ 309.60 (+13.1%) · Early Up ≥ 288.79 · Est. Down < 287.25 |
| Trend · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.23% | -0.95% | Est. Up ≥ 278.51 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 277.90 · Est. Down < 276.43 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.61% | -1.98% | Est. Up ≥ 304.81 (+11.3%) · Early Up ≥ 281.47 · Est. Down < 279.97 |
| Trading · XFN | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.67% | -0.68% | Est. Up ≥ 276.82 (+1.1%) · Early Up ≥ 276.38 · Est. Down < 274.91 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 273.78)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 298.13–306.38 | +8.9% to +11.9% | LH 08-06 298.13 · LH 07-28 300.00 · LH 08-17 302.35 · ATH 07-16 306.38 |
| R2 | 289.25–293.87 | +5.7% to +7.3% | LH 08-26 289.25 · LH 09-22 290.56 · LH 09-04 293.87 |
| R1 | 280.30–288.40 | +2.4% to +5.3% | LH 10-06 280.30 · 20-day SMA 281.35 · 100-day SMA 285.16 · 50-day SMA 286.73 · LH 09-28 286.92 · LH 09-11 288.40 |
| S1 | 272.85–272.85 | -0.3% to -0.3% | low 10-01 272.85 |
| S2 | 259.52–261.69 | -4.4% to -5.2% | 50% 261.69 · 40-wk SMA 260.61 · 200-day SMA 259.52 |
| S3 | 251.15–253.42 | -7.4% to -8.3% | channel floor 253.42 · 61.8% 251.15 |
| Targets | 329.51 · 366.93 | +20.4% · +34.0% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 306.38 → 268.96 pullback · 2-yr channel top 329.23 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 272.85 (-0.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 259.52–261.69.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 259.52 (-5.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 251.15–253.42.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 309.60 (+13.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 288.79 · Est. Down < 287.25 (+4.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 304.81 · Early Up ≥ 281.47 · Est. Down < 279.97.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “Banks (BMO, NA) remain in choppy ranges we expect will continue well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 6 p63: TSX Bank Index momentum “has yet to move back to oversold levels suggesting further choppy trading well into Q4.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XFN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).