SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
SHOP TSX
Shopify Inc · held position
Last Price (CAD) $243.83
Unrealized G/L +62.6% (+C$25,153)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 3.52% (Canada)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($278.12–278.12); review on a Friday close below $219.45.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
Leads S&P/TSX and sector; above falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P/TSX for 11 weeks (+50.7% relative)
Leading TSX tech (XIT) for 10 weeks (+28.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $253.10 | +3.8% | top of R1 (ATH ’25-10-29) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $278.12–278.12 | +14.1% to +14.1% | channel top |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $219.45 | -10.0% | floor of first-support band S1 (219.45) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $213.31 | -12.5% | trend stop; next support $202.72–208.75 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $219.45): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $213.31): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P/TSX, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $202.72–208.75.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “SHOP’s uptrend remains intact approaching next resistance between 252-253 where a short-term pause is likely” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $193.11 (-20.8%) keeps RS vs the S&P/TSX at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $219.45 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · SHOP (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (219.45); the 40-wk SMA 177.15 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $219.45–224.33 | -8.0% to -10.0% | low ’25-10-07, low 01-12, wk high 08-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $219.45 | -10.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 213.31–217.29 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $253.10 | +3.8% | top of R1 (ATH ’25-10-29) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 68.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 16 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.6 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 73.6 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 68.6 Early Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 81.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 86.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 81.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SHOP (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +27.58% | +21.65% | Est. Up ≥ 193.11 (-20.8%) · Est. Down < 170.68 |
| Trend · XIT | 1 Established Up (+) → | +14.02% | +12.35% | Est. Up ≥ 215.66 (-11.6%) · Est. Down < 170.68 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.61% | +4.28% | Est. Up ≥ 218.91 (-10.2%) · Est. Down < 170.68 |
| Trading · XIT | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.81% | +3.87% | Est. Up ≥ 227.53 (-6.7%) · Est. Down < 170.68 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 243.83)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 286.85–286.85 | +17.6% to +17.6% | 127.2% ext. 286.85 |
| R2 | 278.12–278.12 | +14.1% to +14.1% | channel top 278.12 |
| R1 | 253.10–253.10 | +3.8% to +3.8% | ATH ’25-10-29 253.10 |
| S1 | 219.45–224.33 | -8.0% to -10.0% | low ’25-10-07 224.33 · low 01-12 223.84 · wk high 08-14 221.12 · low ’25-12-12 219.45 |
| S2 | 213.31–217.29 | -10.9% to -12.5% | wk high 08-28 217.29 · low ’25-10-17 217.02 · low ’25-12-08 216.69 · low ’25-12-16 214.00 · low 01-14 213.44 · low 01-02 213.31 |
| S3 | 202.72–208.75 | -14.4% to -16.9% | low ’25-12-01 208.75 · low 08-12 207.33 · 20-day SMA 207.29 · low ’25-11-07 206.75 · low ’25-10-14 204.18 · 50-day SMA 202.72 |
| Targets | 329.79 · 453.88 | +35.3% · +86.1% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 253.10 → 129.01 pullback · 2-yr channel top 278.12 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 219.45 (-10.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 213.31–217.29.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 213.31 (-12.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 202.72–208.75.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 193.11 (-20.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 193.11 · Est. Down < 170.68 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 218.91 · Est. Down < 170.68.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p64: “SHOP remains in an uptrend with a pullback underway with 185 support we expect will hold near its rising blue 50-day ma.”
- CB Sep 22 p62: “SHOP is oversold and bottoming following its short-term pullback to support at 175 coinciding with its 50% retracement.”
- CB Sep 29 p62: “SHOP’s rebound from support near its red 200-day ma continues with pullbacks expected to be short lived.”
- CB Oct 6 p70: “SHOP’s rebound from its 2022-2026 uptrend remains intact with the next extension levels at 252 followed by 329.”
- CB Oct 13 p60: “SHOP’s uptrend remains intact approaching next resistance between 252-253 where a short-term pause is likely given daily momentum in the top right panel is overbought and poised to peak.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XIT (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).