SU.TO held card v5

APPENDIX · SU (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (94.60); the 40-wk SMA 85.79 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$94.60–97.39	-5.5% to -8.2%	20-day SMA, wk high 05-22, wk high 07-31
Trading stop · daily close	below $94.60	-8.2%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 92.06–94.17
Breakout Buy Level	close above $104.94	+1.8%	top of R1 (ATH 10-09, 127.2% ext.)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 80.4

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	30 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising	20.0 / 20
Band position	2.4 / 10
Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling)	3 / 10
Raw	85.4 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	80.4 Established Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 79.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	4.9 / 20
Raw	84.9 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	79.9 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (SU (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+13.51%	+7.11%	Est. Up ≥ 91.89 (-10.8%) · Est. Down < 72.13
Trend · XEG	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.36%	+1.87%	Est. Up ≥ 98.32 (-4.6%) · Est. Down < 84.54
Trading · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.45%	+6.13%	Est. Up ≥ 98.28 (-4.6%) · Est. Down < 81.62
Trading · XEG	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.18%	+2.81%	Est. Up ≥ 101.30 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 89.60

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 103.04)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	114.91–114.91	+11.5% to +11.5%	channel top 114.91
R2	107.49–107.49	+4.3% to +4.3%	261.8% ext. 107.49
R1	103.36–104.94	+0.3% to +1.8%	ATH 10-09 103.36 · 127.2% ext. 104.05 · 161.8% ext. 104.94
S1	94.60–97.39	-5.5% to -8.2%	20-day SMA 97.39 · wk high 05-22 96.53 · wk high 07-31 94.60
S2	92.06–94.17	-8.6% to -10.7%	50-day SMA 94.17 · low 09-22 92.55 · low 09-04 92.15 · wk high 06-05 92.06
S3	88.91–89.79	-12.9% to -13.7%	100-day SMA 89.79 · low 08-26 89.54 · 50% 89.49 · low 07-28 89.14 · low 04-01 88.91
Targets	104.94 · 107.49	+1.8% · +4.3%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 103.36 → 100.81 pullback · 2-yr channel top 114.91

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 94.60 (-8.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 92.06–94.17.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 92.06 (-10.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 88.91–89.79.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 91.89 (-10.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 91.89 · Est. Down < 72.13 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 98.28 · Est. Down < 81.62.

Sluymer context

CB Sep 15: “SU’s long-term technical profile remains positive but advanced short-term with 93 followed by 89 first near-term support.”
CB Sep 22: “SU is also stalling at resistance near its Q2 highs with support starting between 91-94 followed by 85-88.”
CB Sep 29: “SU continues to pause near its Q2 highs holding above first support near 90.”
CB Oct 6: “SU continues to consolidate near its summer highs with first support in the low-mid 90s.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XEG (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $104.94	+1.8%	top of R1 (ATH 10-09, 127.2% ext.)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$107.49–107.49	+4.3% to +4.3%	261.8% ext.
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $94.60	-8.2%	floor of first-support band S1 (94.60)
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $92.06	-10.7%	trend stop; next support $88.91–89.79

SU TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders