TECK-B.TO held card v5

APPENDIX · TECK.B (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (93.24); the 40-wk SMA 82.98 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$93.24–95.62	-1.5% to -4.0%	wk high 06-19, 20-day SMA, 50-day SMA
Trading stop · daily close	below $93.24	-4.0%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 89.72–91.99
Breakout Buy Level	close above $99.91	+2.9%	top of R1 (LH 09-22, LH 10-02)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 77.2

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising	20.0 / 20
Band position	4.2 / 10
Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling)	3 / 10
Raw	82.2 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	77.2 Established Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 70.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating	12.5 / 25
Band position	8.4 / 20
Raw	75.9 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	70.9 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (TECK.B (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+8.28%	+4.30%	Est. Up ≥ 90.28 (-7.0%) · Est. Down < 77.88
Trend · XMA	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+4.51%	+7.47%	Est. Up ≥ 93.12 (-4.1%) · Early Up ≥ 93.09 · Est. Down < 92.59
Trading · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.62%	+1.76%	Est. Up ≥ 95.01 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 84.34
Trading · XMA	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.57%	+1.25%	Est. Up ≥ 94.30 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 71.84

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 97.10)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	107.25–107.25	+10.5% to +10.5%	161.8% ext. 107.25
R2	103.14–103.14	+6.2% to +6.2%	127.2% ext. 103.14
R1	97.66–99.91	+0.6% to +2.9%	LH 09-22 97.66 · LH 10-02 97.86 · high 06-02 98.57 · high 08-26 99.81 · ATH 09-08 99.91
S1	93.24–95.62	-1.5% to -4.0%	wk high 06-19 95.62 · 20-day SMA 93.52 · 50-day SMA 93.24
S2	89.72–91.99	-5.3% to -7.6%	low 09-02 91.99 · low 10-08 91.83 · low 10-01 91.30 · low 09-28 90.67 · 100-day SMA 89.72
S3	86.88–88.03	-9.3% to -10.5%	low 09-14 88.03 · wk high 07-10 87.68 · low 08-18 87.25 · low 05-12 86.88
Targets	107.25 · 119.13	+10.5% · +22.7%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 99.91 → 88.03 pullback · 2-yr channel top 116.64

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 93.24 (-4.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 89.72–91.99.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 89.72 (-7.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 86.88–88.03.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 90.28 (-7.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 90.28 · Est. Down < 77.88 (-19.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 95.01 · Est. Down < 84.34.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 6: “Metals (FCX) and Steels (STLD) have pulled back to support and are beginning to bottom.”
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XMA (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Class B shares mapped to TECK-B.TO. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $99.91	+2.9%	top of R1 (LH 09-22, LH 10-02)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$103.14–103.14	+6.2% to +6.2%	127.2% ext.
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $93.24	-4.0%	floor of first-support band S1 (93.24)
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $89.72	-7.6%	trend stop; next support $86.88–88.03

TECK.B TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders