SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
TIH TSX
Toromont Industries · held position
Last Price (CAD) $214.40
Unrealized G/L +32.6% (+C$9,268)
Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close · CAD; TSX closed Oct 12 (Thanksgiving)
Portfolio weight 2.10% (Canada)
REDUCEFriday close broke last week's $225.21 trend breakdown level. Trim or exit if the story has also weakened.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P/TSX and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P/TSX for 1 week (-9.8% relative)
Lagging TSX industrials (ZIN) for 1 week (-7.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $218.77 | +2.0% | top of R1 (high 04-14, high 03-02) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $222.00–225.88 | +3.5% to +5.4% | LH 08-12, high 05-07, high 05-14 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $209.31 | -2.4% | 40-wk SMA 209.31 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $199.04 | -7.2% | trend stop; next support $195.00–197.86 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $209.31): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $199.04): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P/TSX, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $195.00–197.86.
Sluymer's view: Differs. “TIH’s rebound continues but is becoming overbought short-term after the strong rebound in September” (CB Sep 29).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $215.29 (+0.4%) lifts RS vs the S&P/TSX off Est. Down; a Friday close below $209.31 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · TIH (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 209.31.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $207.00–212.72 | -0.8% to -3.5% | 50-day SMA, low 05-21, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $207.00 | -3.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 199.04–205.02 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $218.77 | +2.0% | top of R1 (high 04-14, high 03-02) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Early Down. |
Scores · Trend 35.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 15.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.9 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling) | 3 / 10 |
| Raw | 40.9 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 35.9 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 35.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 21 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 40.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 35.0 Early Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TIH (TSX) close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P/TSX | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.25% | -4.66% | Est. Up ≥ 265.28 (+23.7%) · Early Up ≥ 216.44 · Est. Down < 215.29 |
| Trend · ZIN | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.52% | -4.28% | Est. Up ≥ 257.99 (+20.3%) · Early Up ≥ 217.35 · Est. Down < 216.20 |
| Trading · S&P/TSX | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -4.63% | -6.87% | Est. Up ≥ 226.53 (+5.7%) · Est. Down < 186.70 |
| Trading · ZIN | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -3.71% | -4.86% | Est. Up ≥ 223.91 (+4.4%) · Est. Down < 204.45 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 214.40)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 229.00–234.49 | +6.8% to +9.4% | high 06-04 229.00 · LH 09-28 229.04 · high 05-29 229.16 · LH 08-05 229.24 · LH 07-02 234.49 |
| R2 | 222.00–225.88 | +3.5% to +5.4% | LH 08-12 222.00 · high 05-07 225.00 · high 05-14 225.88 |
| R1 | 214.62–218.77 | +0.1% to +2.0% | high 04-14 214.62 · high 03-02 215.58 · high 06-16 216.19 · high 07-28 217.44 · 100-day SMA 218.39 · 20-day SMA 218.77 |
| S1 | 207.00–212.72 | -0.8% to -3.5% | 50-day SMA 212.72 · low 05-21 210.25 · 40-wk SMA 209.31 · 200-day SMA 207.00 |
| S2 | 199.04–205.02 | -4.4% to -7.2% | low 04-21 205.02 · low 07-27 204.65 · low 06-17 204.30 · channel floor 201.71 · low 08-24 201.01 · 50% 199.68 · low 07-29 199.04 |
| S3 | 195.00–197.86 | -7.7% to -9.0% | low 09-15 197.86 · low 02-23 197.17 · low 03-09 195.00 |
| Targets | 278.16 · 334.24 | +29.7% · +55.9% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 243.50 → 187.42 pullback · 2-yr channel top 281.17 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 207.00 (-3.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 199.04–205.02.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 199.04 (-7.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 195.00–197.86.
- Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 265.28 (+23.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 216.44 · Est. Down < 215.29 (+0.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 226.53 · Est. Down < 186.70.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 22 p58: “TIH is tracking the profile of AI/semiconductors with its Q3 correction bottoming near 190.”
- CB Sep 29 p59: “TIH’s rebound continues but is becoming overbought short-term (top right) after the strong rebound in September.”
- CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
- CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and ZIN (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Sector proxy ZIN (BMO equal-weight industrials); no iShares TSX industrials ETF. Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).