WPM.TO held card v5

APPENDIX · WPM (TSX) · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 185.77.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$188.71–194.38	-1.7% to -4.5%	low 01-27, low 01-22, low 02-12
Trading stop · daily close	below $188.71	-4.5%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 182.92–188.42
Breakout Buy Level	close above $204.00	+3.2%	top of R1 (LH 05-11, 50-day SMA)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Neutral: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P/TSX Neutral.

Scores · Trend 75.0

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	18.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising	20.0 / 20
Band position	4.0 / 10
Breadth proxy 38.1 (falling)	3 / 10
Raw	80.0 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	75.0 Established Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 54.6

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	12.0 + 5.7 / 30
Structure	15 / 25
Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure)	18.8 / 25
Band position	8.1 / 20
Raw	59.6 (Neutral)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	54.6 Neutral
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (WPM (TSX) close needed)
Trend · S&P/TSX	1 Established Up (−) →	+6.72%	-1.83%	Est. Up ≥ 187.14 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 138.36
Trend · XGD	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.58%	+1.64%	Est. Up ≥ 193.57 (-2.1%) · Est. Down < 173.28
Trading · S&P/TSX	3 Neutral (+) ↑	-0.19%	+0.96%	Est. Up ≥ 234.77 (+18.8%) · Early Up ≥ 198.04 · Est. Down < 196.98
Trading · XGD	2 Early Up (−) ↑	+0.61%	-0.21%	Est. Up ≥ 201.98 (+2.2%) · Early Up ≥ 196.90 · Est. Down < 195.85

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 197.66)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	214.41–217.89	+8.5% to +10.2%	high 01-29 214.41 · high 09-18 214.98 · LH 09-03 217.02 · LH 09-22 217.89
R2	207.59–211.88	+5.0% to +7.2%	LH 03-10 207.59 · LH 04-17 210.60 · high 01-26 211.70 · high 03-04 211.88
R1	198.79–204.00	+0.6% to +3.2%	LH 05-11 198.79 · 50-day SMA 198.99 · high 02-13 199.10 · high 01-21 200.42 · 20-day SMA 200.44 · LH 03-13 203.10 · high 02-11 204.00
S1	188.71–194.38	-1.7% to -4.5%	low 01-27 194.38 · low 01-22 191.01 · low 02-12 189.37 · low 03-09 188.71
S2	182.92–188.42	-4.7% to -7.5%	low 02-17 188.42 · low 05-12 187.97 · low 10-07 187.83 · low 10-01 187.01 · wk high 06-19 186.62 · low 03-16 186.05 · 40-wk SMA 185.77 · 200-day SMA 185.13 · low 08-18 183.05 · low 08-13 182.92
S3	177.37–182.45	-7.7% to -10.3%	low 04-02 182.45 · 100-day SMA 181.51 · low 08-10 180.41 · low 02-05 179.04 · channel floor 177.37
Targets	278.87 · 363.32	+41.1% · +83.8%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 226.68 → 142.23 pullback · 2-yr channel top 273.39

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 188.71 (-4.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 182.92–188.42.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 182.92 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 177.37–182.45.
Trend vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 187.14 (-5.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 187.14 · Est. Down < 138.36 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P/TSX: Est. Up ≥ 234.77 · Early Up ≥ 198.04 · Est. Down < 196.98.

Sluymer context

CB Aug 18 p62: “WPM is also at its next extension level between 184-194 where a near-term pause is likely.”
CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
CB Oct 13: “Rate-sensitive stocks, such as ENB, TRP, PPL, FTS and H are becoming oversold with early signs of bottoming near support.”
CB Oct 13: CADUSD “weak but oversold short-term challenging next support at 0.70”; US 10-yr “beginning to stall” at 5.35%.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P/TSX Composite (20 pts) and XGD (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Fri, Oct 9, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Rates modifier uses the US 10-yr (Sluymer's global rate gauge). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of ~210 current S&P/TSX Composite members (dashboard universe) with a rising weekly Coppock, in the spirit of his TSX Quadrant Balance; survivorship bias; regime input only. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $204.00	+3.2%	top of R1 (LH 05-11, 50-day SMA)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$207.59–211.88	+5.0% to +7.2%	LH 03-10, LH 04-17, high 01-26
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $185.77	-6.0%	40-wk SMA 185.77
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $182.92	-7.5%	trend stop; next support $177.37–182.45

WPM TSX

Trend health

Key levels for holders