SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
AAPL
Apple Inc. · held position
Last Price $340.97
Unrealized G/L +38.7% (+$24,841)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.38% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($357.41–357.41); review on a Friday close below $325.81.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
Leads S&P, lags sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 7 weeks (+6.9% relative)
Lagging tech (XLK) for 2 weeks (-2.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $350.65 | +2.8% | top of R1 (LH 09-28, wk high 07-31) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $357.41–357.41 | +4.8% to +4.8% | 161.8% ext. |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $325.81 | -4.4% | floor of first-support band S1 (325.81) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $316.26 | -7.2% | trend stop; next support $307.01–309.90 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $325.81): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $316.26): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $307.01–309.90.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLK is Early Up (−) / Early Down vs the S&P; semis pulling back, which he expects to be short lived (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $331.25 (-2.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $325.81 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · AAPL · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (325.81); the 40-wk SMA 291.74 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $325.81–335.78 | -1.5% to -4.4% | 20-day SMA, low 09-24, low 10-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $325.81 | -4.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 316.26–323.03 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $350.65 | +2.8% | top of R1 (LH 09-28, wk high 07-31) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Up. |
Scores · Trend 66.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 30 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 71.5 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 66.5 Early Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 59.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 64.1 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 59.1 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AAPL close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.46% | -2.16% | Est. Up ≥ 331.25 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 275.16 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) → | -1.71% | -2.55% | Est. Up ≥ 345.50 (+1.3%) · Est. Down < 284.27 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.60% | +1.21% | Est. Up ≥ 348.05 (+2.1%) · Early Up ≥ 339.66 · Est. Down < 337.84 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.04% | +3.87% | Est. Up ≥ 356.12 (+4.4%) · Early Up ≥ 334.63 · Est. Down < 332.84 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 340.97)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 373.55–376.94 | +9.6% to +10.5% | channel top 373.55 · 261.8% ext. 376.94 |
| R2 | 357.41–357.41 | +4.8% to +4.8% | 161.8% ext. 357.41 |
| R1 | 342.99–350.65 | +0.6% to +2.8% | LH 09-28 342.99 · wk high 07-31 344.57 · ATH 09-22 345.34 · 127.2% ext. 350.65 |
| S1 | 325.81–335.78 | -1.5% to -4.4% | 20-day SMA 335.78 · low 09-24 334.30 · low 10-01 325.81 |
| S2 | 316.26–323.03 | -5.3% to -7.2% | 50-day SMA 323.03 · low 07-23 319.35 · wk high 06-12 317.40 · 100-day SMA 316.26 |
| S3 | 307.01–309.90 | -9.1% to -10.0% | low 09-09 309.90 · low 08-21 307.01 |
| Targets | 357.41 · 376.94 | +4.8% · +10.5% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 345.34 → 325.81 pullback · 2-yr channel top 373.55 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 325.81 (-4.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 316.26–323.03.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 316.26 (-7.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 307.01–309.90.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 331.25 (-2.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 331.25 · Est. Down < 275.16 (-19.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 348.05 · Early Up ≥ 339.66 · Est. Down < 337.84.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “The SOX Semiconductor remains a lightning rod… Another pullback is underway”; “we expect pullbacks will be short lived.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).