SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines · held position
Last Price $188.18
Unrealized G/L +119.0% (+$44,373)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.13% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $189.73 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
Leads S&P and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 10 weeks (+24.8% relative)
Leading materials (XLB) for 10 weeks (+32.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $192.49 | +2.3% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $196.13–201.98 | +4.2% to +7.3% | high 03-26, high 05-07, LH 05-11 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $189.73 | +0.8% | 40-wk SMA 189.73 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $177.74 | -5.5% | trend stop; next support $170.43–175.56 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $189.73): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $177.74): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $170.43–175.56.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. AEM last named Aug 18: “weekly momentum continues to build positively from oversold levels… a near-term pause is likely” at C$269–288 (≈US$189.12–202.48 @ USD/CAD 1.4224, Oct 9) (CB Aug 18; his AEM levels are the TSX listing in C$); since then gold “broke below 4273 support” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $183.31 (-2.6%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close back above $189.73 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $177.74 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · AEM · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 189.73 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $182.21–187.04 | -0.6% to -3.2% | low 02-02, low 03-27, wk high 06-19 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $182.21 | -3.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 177.74–181.13 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $192.49 | +2.3% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 69.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 6.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 74.2 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 69.2 Early Up |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 49.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 54.1 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 49.1 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AEM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.95% | -3.66% | Est. Up ≥ 183.31 (-2.6%) · Est. Down < 151.57 |
| Trend · XLB | 1 Established Up (−) → | +10.29% | -2.08% | Est. Up ≥ 173.23 (-7.9%) · Est. Down < 131.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.63% | +4.25% | Est. Up ≥ 229.71 (+22.1%) · Early Up ≥ 188.79 · Est. Down < 187.78 |
| Trading · XLB | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.22% | +3.35% | Est. Up ≥ 215.63 (+14.6%) · Early Up ≥ 187.45 · Est. Down < 186.45 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 188.18)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 203.60–208.64 | +8.2% to +10.9% | LH 09-17 203.60 · LH 09-22 204.62 · LH 09-03 207.68 · LH 09-09 208.64 |
| R2 | 196.13–201.98 | +4.2% to +7.3% | high 03-26 196.13 · high 05-07 197.80 · LH 05-11 200.64 · high 02-03 201.98 |
| R1 | 189.44–192.49 | +0.7% to +2.3% | 200-day SMA 189.44 · 40-wk SMA 189.73 · 20-day SMA 190.33 · 50-day SMA 192.49 |
| S1 | 182.21–187.04 | -0.6% to -3.2% | low 02-02 187.04 · low 03-27 185.31 · wk high 06-19 182.21 |
| S2 | 177.74–181.13 | -3.7% to -5.5% | low 09-28 181.13 · low 10-05 179.75 · low 03-24 178.57 · low 05-05 178.02 · low 08-13 178.00 · low 10-07 177.74 |
| S3 | 170.43–175.56 | -6.7% to -9.4% | low 03-20 175.56 · 100-day SMA 175.29 · 61.8% 173.10 · low 05-19 172.44 · low 05-28 170.89 · low ’25-10-17 170.43 |
| Targets | 329.93 · 450.79 | +75.3% · +139.6% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 255.24 → 134.38 pullback · 2-yr channel top 308.30 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 182.21 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 177.74–181.13.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 177.74 (-5.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 170.43–175.56.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 183.31 (-2.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 183.31 · Est. Down < 151.57 (-19.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 229.71 · Early Up ≥ 188.79 · Est. Down < 187.78.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p61: “AEM’s weekly momentum continues to build positively from oversold levels as it approaches trading resistance at the 50-62% retracement levels between 269-288 where a near-term pause is likely.” Levels are C$ (TSX listing): C$269–288 (≈US$189.12–202.48 @ USD/CAD 1.4224, Oct 9).
- CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).