SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
AMZN
Amazon.com · held position
Last Price $259.53
Unrealized G/L +16.9% (+$15,308)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.78% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($273.88–280.14); review on a Friday close below $243.00.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 1 week (+3.2% relative)
Leading cons. discretionary (XLY) for 11 weeks (+9.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $267.56 | +3.1% | top of R1 (LH 09-04, LH 08-25) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $273.88–280.14 | +5.5% to +7.9% | high 04-30, high 05-29, wk high 05-08 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $243.00 | -6.4% | 40-wk SMA 243.00 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $242.29 | -6.6% | trend stop; next support $234.90–241.60 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $243.00): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $242.29): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $234.90–241.60.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “AMZN is bottoming near its 50-62% retracement band between 230-241” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $261.87 (+0.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $243.00 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · AMZN · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 243.00.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $251.93–258.85 | -0.3% to -2.9% | 50-day SMA, wk high 07-17, low 08-18 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $251.93 | -2.9% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 242.29–249.58 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $267.56 | +3.1% | top of R1 (LH 09-04, LH 08-25) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 84.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 7.6 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 89.6 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 84.6 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 87.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 92.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 87.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AMZN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.82% | +4.19% | Est. Up ≥ 261.87 (+0.9%) · Est. Down < 239.26 |
| Trend · XLY | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.94% | +2.98% | Est. Up ≥ 252.11 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 202.57 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.87% | -0.22% | Est. Up ≥ 255.34 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 253.34 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (−) → | +1.29% | -0.96% | Est. Up ≥ 257.01 (-1.0%) · Est. Down < 249.32 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 259.53)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 287.20–287.20 | +10.7% to +10.7% | ATH 08-03 287.20 |
| R2 | 273.88–280.14 | +5.5% to +7.9% | high 04-30 273.88 · high 05-29 274.75 · wk high 05-08 278.56 · LH 08-10 280.14 |
| R1 | 261.12–267.56 | +0.6% to +3.1% | LH 09-04 261.12 · LH 08-25 263.89 · LH 08-19 266.40 · LH 08-28 267.56 |
| S1 | 251.93–258.85 | -0.3% to -2.9% | 50-day SMA 258.85 · wk high 07-17 258.08 · low 08-18 257.73 · low 08-21 257.04 · low 05-19 255.19 · low 08-27 255.02 · 100-day SMA 252.74 · 20-day SMA 252.32 · low 09-01 251.93 |
| S2 | 242.29–249.58 | -3.8% to -6.6% | low 09-10 249.58 · low 04-20 245.37 · low 09-28 244.73 · low 09-16 244.30 · 40-wk SMA 243.00 · 200-day SMA 242.29 |
| S3 | 234.90–241.60 | -6.9% to -9.5% | 50% 241.60 · low ’25-11-07 238.49 · low 07-09 238.25 · low 06-17 236.00 · low 07-01 234.90 |
| Targets | 313.71 · 356.61 | +20.9% · +37.4% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 287.20 → 244.30 pullback · 2-yr channel top 295.86 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 251.93 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 242.29–249.58.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 242.29 (-6.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 234.90–241.60.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 261.87 (+0.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 261.87 · Est. Down < 239.26 (-7.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 255.34 · Est. Down < 253.34.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 6: “AMZN’s technical profile differs from most other growth stocks, but it too is oversold short-term following a late summer pullback to support near its 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 6 p49: “AMZN has pulled back to support near its 50% retracement (right chart) with early signs of bottoming.”
- CB Oct 13: “AMZN, WMT, HD and BABA’s chart profiles differ significantly but all are oversold with early signs of bottoming at support.”
- CB Oct 13 p45: “AMZN is bottoming near its 50-62% retracement band between 230-241.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLY relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).