SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
CCO
Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) · held position
Last Price $86.12
Unrealized G/L +285.8% (+$44,532)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 1.62% (US)
REDUCETrend impaired: Est. Down below a falling 40-wk SMA ($105.26). Trim or exit if the story has also weakened.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Down
Lags S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 7 weeks (-15.6% relative)
Lagging energy (XLE) for 15 weeks (-30.3% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $91.41 | +6.1% | top of R1 (high ’25-10-07, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $91.75–93.49 | +6.5% to +8.6% | LH 07-27, LH 07-22, high 07-15 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $105.26 | +22.2% | 40-wk SMA 105.26 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $80.53 | -6.5% | trend stop; next support $77.70–77.70 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $105.26): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $80.53): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $77.70–77.70.
Sluymer's view: Differs. Last named Aug 18: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow” (CB Aug 18; his CCO = Cameco, we hold the CCJ listing).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $95.16 (+10.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $105.26 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $80.53 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · CCO · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 105.26 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $83.15–85.68 | -0.5% to -3.4% | low 09-28, low ’25-10-08, low 08-03 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $83.15 | -3.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 80.53–82.39 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $91.41 | +6.1% | top of R1 (high ’25-10-07, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 17.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 8.9 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 22.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 17.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 20.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 17.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 25.4 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 20.4 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CCO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.63% | -0.88% | Early Up ≥ 95.67 · Est. Down < 95.16 |
| Trend · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.38% | -4.68% | Early Up ≥ 100.30 · Est. Down < 99.76 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.27% | -3.38% | Est. Up ≥ 108.22 (+25.7%) · Early Up ≥ 88.84 · Est. Down < 88.36 |
| Trading · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.79% | -7.19% | Early Up ≥ 92.03 · Est. Down < 91.54 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 86.12)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 94.57–97.17 | +9.8% to +12.8% | LH 10-06 94.57 · 50-day SMA 94.77 · high ’25-12-05 95.00 · high 09-22 95.36 · high ’25-12-29 95.67 · LH 09-18 96.09 · high ’25-12-11 96.57 · high ’25-11-10 96.96 · 100-day SMA 97.17 |
| R2 | 91.75–93.49 | +6.5% to +8.6% | LH 07-27 91.75 · LH 07-22 92.06 · high 07-15 93.19 · high ’25-12-15 93.49 |
| R1 | 89.03–91.41 | +3.4% to +6.1% | high ’25-10-07 89.03 · 20-day SMA 89.18 · high ’25-10-24 89.19 · high ’25-11-20 89.87 · LH 09-30 89.92 · high ’25-12-02 90.39 · high 07-31 91.41 |
| S1 | 83.15–85.68 | -0.5% to -3.4% | low 09-28 85.68 · low ’25-10-08 85.14 · low 08-03 85.02 · channel floor 84.98 · low ’25-10-27 84.29 · low 10-01 83.80 · low 07-29 83.50 · low 07-17 83.15 |
| S2 | 80.53–82.39 | -4.3% to -6.5% | low ’25-10-01 82.39 · low ’25-11-18 81.30 · low ’25-10-21 80.53 |
| S3 | 77.70–77.70 | -9.8% to -9.8% | low ’25-11-21 77.70 |
| Targets | 167.43 · 219.52 | +94.4% · +154.9% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 135.24 → 83.15 pullback · 2-yr channel top 179.04 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 83.15 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 80.53–82.39.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 80.53 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 77.70–77.70.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 95.67 · Est. Down < 95.16 (+10.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 108.22 · Early Up ≥ 88.84 · Est. Down < 88.36.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18: “CCO is oversold intermediate-term and beginning to rally back from support at its 50% retracement level.”
- CB Aug 18 p58: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLE relative to the S&P is Est. Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). PIM lists CCO (Cameco's TSX symbol) in the US book; we use the NYSE listing CCJ in USD. Sluymer refers to CCO. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).