SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
COIN
Coinbase Global · held position
Last Price $180.39
Unrealized G/L -27.1% (−$14,407)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 0.99% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $180.46 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Leads S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 8 weeks (+20.4% relative)
Leading financials (XLF) for 8 weeks (+28.4% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $183.47 | +1.7% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, LH 07-21) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $186.21–190.71 | +3.2% to +5.7% | 20-day SMA, high 03-02, LH 02-26 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $180.46 | +0.0% | 40-wk SMA 180.46 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $169.17 | -6.2% | trend stop; next support $161.12–166.05 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $180.46): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $169.17): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $161.12–166.05.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. Last named Sep 15: “COIN is oversold and beginning to bottom with 194 first resistance followed by 222” (CB Sep 15).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $175.17 (-2.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close back above $180.46 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $169.17 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · COIN · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 180.46 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $174.73–177.62 | -1.5% to -3.1% | low 04-29, low 03-24, low 08-28 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $174.73 | -3.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 169.17–172.05 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $183.47 | +1.7% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, LH 07-21) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 56.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 61.2 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 56.2 Neutral |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 15.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 20.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 15.9 Established Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (COIN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.29% | -8.86% | Est. Up ≥ 175.17 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 148.98 |
| Trend · XLF | 1 Established Up (−) → | +8.58% | -7.87% | Est. Up ≥ 166.52 (-7.7%) · Est. Down < 139.70 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -4.84% | +1.02% | Est. Up ≥ 242.88 (+34.6%) · Early Up ≥ 189.17 · Est. Down < 188.16 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.48% | -1.30% | Est. Up ≥ 230.59 (+27.8%) · Early Up ≥ 190.56 · Est. Down < 189.55 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 180.39)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 191.83–196.62 | +6.3% to +9.0% | LH 05-29 191.83 · high 10-06 192.80 · LH 09-14 193.22 · LH 08-27 193.81 · LH 09-03 195.85 · LH 05-20 196.62 |
| R2 | 186.21–190.71 | +3.2% to +5.7% | 20-day SMA 186.21 · high 03-02 186.35 · LH 02-26 186.39 · LH 04-08 189.57 · high 08-31 189.95 · high 03-25 190.71 |
| R1 | 180.46–183.47 | +0.0% to +1.7% | 40-wk SMA 180.46 · LH 07-21 181.49 · 200-day SMA 183.47 |
| S1 | 174.73–177.62 | -1.5% to -3.1% | low 04-29 177.62 · low 03-24 177.60 · low 08-28 176.06 · 50-day SMA 175.25 · low 08-25 174.73 |
| S2 | 169.17–172.05 | -4.6% to -6.2% | low 03-03 172.05 · low 09-02 172.03 · low 02-27 171.81 · low 10-09 171.60 · low 09-10 170.39 · 100-day SMA 169.80 · low 05-28 169.17 |
| S3 | 161.12–166.05 | -7.9% to -10.7% | low 04-07 166.05 · low 04-02 163.56 · low 04-10 163.13 · low 09-16 161.18 · low 02-19 161.12 |
| Targets | 633.47 · 939.01 | +251.2% · +420.5% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 444.65 → 139.11 pullback · 2-yr channel top 285.26 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 174.73 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 169.17–172.05.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 169.17 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 161.12–166.05.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 175.17 (-2.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 175.17 · Est. Down < 148.98 (-17.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 242.88 · Early Up ≥ 189.17 · Est. Down < 188.16.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 15: “COIN is beginning to bottom as digital assets improve.”
- CB Sep 15 p40: “COIN is oversold and beginning to bottom with 194 first resistance followed by 222 with the first extension level at 274.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLF relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).