SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
COST
Costco Wholesale · held position
Last Price $959.44
Unrealized G/L +26.0% (+$23,922)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 3.07% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $968.28 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P, leads sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 26 weeks (-17.2% relative)
Leading staples (XLP) for 3 weeks (+5.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $989.12 | +3.1% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, LH 07-17) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $993.00–1020.82 | +3.5% to +6.4% | high 01-26, LH 06-16, LH 06-05 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $968.28 | +0.9% | 40-wk SMA 968.28 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $898.43 | -6.4% | trend stop; next support $868.68–885.50 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $968.28): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $898.43): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $868.68–885.50.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLP is Est. Down (+) / Early Up vs the S&P (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $951.86 (-0.8%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $968.28 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $898.43 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · COST · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 968.28 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $925.00–949.42 | -1.0% to -3.6% | low 08-17, 100-day SMA, low 06-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $925.00 | -3.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 898.43–920.55 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $989.12 | +3.1% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, LH 07-17) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 32.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.5 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 37.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 32.2 Early Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 75.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 80.0 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 75.0 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (COST close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.16% | +1.72% | Est. Up ≥ 1055.78 (+10.0%) · Early Up ≥ 956.95 · Est. Down < 951.86 |
| Trend · XLP | 2 Early Up (+) → | +2.26% | +0.93% | Est. Up ≥ 944.17 (-1.6%) · Early Up ≥ 927.68 · Est. Down < 922.74 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.85% | +1.75% | Est. Up ≥ 937.45 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 815.57 |
| Trading · XLP | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.80% | -1.44% | Est. Up ≥ 956.82 (-0.3%) · Est. Down < 838.71 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 959.44)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1028.44–1048.02 | +7.2% to +9.2% | high 02-17 1028.44 · high 05-01 1031.27 · high 04-09 1035.82 · channel top 1048.02 |
| R2 | 993.00–1020.82 | +3.5% to +6.4% | high 01-26 993.00 · LH 06-16 995.38 · LH 06-05 997.41 · wk high ’25-08-22 999.30 · high 02-09 1009.62 · high 03-13 1012.83 · high 03-02 1020.82 |
| R1 | 963.99–989.12 | +0.5% to +3.1% | 200-day SMA 963.99 · LH 07-17 964.33 · LH 08-06 966.14 · LH 06-24 967.94 · LH 08-03 967.98 · 40-wk SMA 968.28 · LH 07-07 969.00 · LH 06-29 969.86 · LH 08-24 974.49 · LH 08-19 978.70 · LH 07-28 987.55 · LH 06-11 989.12 |
| S1 | 925.00–949.42 | -1.0% to -3.6% | low 08-17 949.42 · 100-day SMA 945.70 · low 06-22 942.53 · 61.8% 940.49 · low 06-25 938.60 · low 06-01 936.51 · low 08-05 935.22 · low 08-12 935.05 · low 08-27 933.25 · 50-day SMA 931.58 · low 01-30 930.30 · low 08-20 925.77 · wk low ’25-08-01 925.00 |
| S2 | 898.43–920.55 | -4.1% to -6.4% | low 07-01 920.55 · 20-day SMA 917.77 · low 07-23 916.76 · low 07-15 910.50 · low ’25-11-03 908.38 · low 07-10 907.21 · low ’25-10-07 903.88 · low 10-01 903.78 · low 09-09 898.43 |
| S3 | 868.68–885.50 | -7.7% to -9.5% | low 09-21 885.50 · low 09-25 883.10 · low ’25-11-19 873.97 · channel floor 868.68 |
| Targets | 1228.38 · 1441.78 | +28.0% · +50.3% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 1096.50 → 883.10 pullback · 2-yr channel top 1048.02 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 925.00 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 898.43–920.55.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 898.43 (-6.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 868.68–885.50.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1055.78 (+10.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 956.95 · Est. Down < 951.86 (-0.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 937.45 · Est. Down < 815.57.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLP relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).