CTVA held card v5

APPENDIX · CTVA · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (12.85); the 40-wk SMA 11.98 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$12.85–12.89	-3.1% to -3.4%	50% retr., wk high 04-10
Trading stop · daily close	below $12.85	-3.4%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 12.30–12.49
Breakout Buy Level	close above $13.65	+2.6%	top of R1 (wk high 09-04, wk high 07-31)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 77.6

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	30 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating	10.0 / 20
Band position	5.6 / 10
Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising)	7 / 10
Raw	82.6 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	77.6 Established Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 80.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	18.0 + 9.0 / 30
Structure	22 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	11.1 / 20
Raw	85.1 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	80.1 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (CTVA close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+3.79%	+11.40%	Est. Up ≥ 12.77 (-4.0%) · Est. Down < 12.21
Trend · XLB	1 Established Up (+) →	+10.27%	+13.23%	Est. Up ≥ 12.05 (-9.4%) · Est. Down < 9.89
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (−) ↑	+5.04%	-8.02%	Est. Up ≥ 12.74 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 9.86
Trading · XLB	1 Established Up (−) →	+5.86%	-8.81%	Est. Up ≥ 12.66 (-4.8%) · Est. Down < 9.31

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 13.30)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	15.11–15.11	+13.6% to +13.6%	127.2% ext. 15.11
R2	14.44–14.62	+8.6% to +9.9%	high 10-01 14.44 · channel top 14.45 · ATH 10-07 14.62
R1	13.63–13.65	+2.5% to +2.6%	wk high 09-04 13.63 · wk high 07-31 13.65
S1	12.85–12.89	-3.1% to -3.4%	50% 12.89 · wk high 04-10 12.85
S2	12.30–12.49	-6.1% to -7.5%	61.8% 12.49 · low 07-15 12.45 · 50-day SMA 12.30
S3	11.74–11.98	-9.9% to -11.7%	40-wk SMA 11.98 · 200-day SMA 11.94 · low 05-07 11.82 · low 09-22 11.79 · low 04-24 11.76 · low 10-05 11.74
Targets	15.72 · 17.51	+18.2% · +31.6%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 14.62 → 12.84 pullback · 2-yr channel top 14.45

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 12.85 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 12.30–12.49.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 12.30 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 11.74–11.98.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 12.77 (-4.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 12.77 · Est. Down < 12.21 (-8.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 12.74 · Est. Down < 9.86.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). CTVA prices are spin-adjusted by Yahoo for the Oct 1 Vylor spin, so history is continuous. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $13.65	+2.6%	top of R1 (wk high 09-04, wk high 07-31)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$14.44–14.62	+8.6% to +9.9%	high 10-01, channel top, ATH 10-07
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $12.85	-3.4%	floor of first-support band S1 (12.85)
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $12.30	-7.5%	trend stop; next support $11.74–11.98

CTVA

Trend health

Key levels for holders