SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
ETN
Eaton Corp. · held position
Last Price $426.69
Unrealized G/L +8.0% (+$2,853)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 1.02% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($443.64–452.00); review on a Friday close below $415.05.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
In line with S&P, leads sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 5 weeks (+3.3% relative)
Leading industrials (XLI) for 6 weeks (+11.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $436.74 | +2.4% | top of R1 (LH 09-11, high 06-30) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $443.64–452.00 | +4.0% to +5.9% | LH 09-22, LH 09-25, LH 10-02 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $415.05 | -2.7% | floor of first-support band S1 (415.05) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $395.48 | -7.3% | trend stop; next support $382.00–392.45 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $415.05): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $395.48): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $382.00–392.45.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “ETN remains range bound but we view its consolidation as orderly above support near its red 200-day ma” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $428.95 (+0.5%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Neutral or better; a Friday close below $415.05 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · ETN · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (415.05); the 40-wk SMA 395.48 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $415.05–426.67 | -0.0% to -2.7% | 50-day SMA, low 09-28, low 10-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $415.05 | -2.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 395.48–406.95 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $436.74 | +2.4% | top of R1 (LH 09-11, high 06-30) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 73.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 8.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 9.7 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 78.7 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 73.7 Early Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 54.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 59.1 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 54.1 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ETN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.07% | -3.20% | Est. Up ≥ 437.34 (+2.5%) · Early Up ≥ 431.25 · Est. Down < 428.95 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) → | +7.39% | -1.67% | Est. Up ≥ 402.76 (-5.6%) · Est. Down < 341.06 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.68% | -1.15% | Est. Up ≥ 460.11 (+7.8%) · Early Up ≥ 439.14 · Est. Down < 436.79 |
| Trading · XLI | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.73% | -1.84% | Est. Up ≥ 440.07 (+3.1%) · Early Up ≥ 435.00 · Est. Down < 432.67 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 426.69)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 478.00–491.69 | +12.0% to +15.2% | ATH 08-12 478.00 · channel top 491.69 |
| R2 | 443.64–452.00 | +4.0% to +5.9% | LH 09-22 443.64 · LH 09-25 447.33 · LH 10-02 452.00 |
| R1 | 427.14–436.74 | +0.1% to +2.4% | LH 09-11 427.14 · high 06-30 427.93 · LH 08-27 427.96 · 20-day SMA 428.94 · LH 09-08 430.25 · high 04-24 432.34 · high 05-01 435.43 · wk high 06-26 436.74 |
| S1 | 415.05–426.67 | -0.0% to -2.7% | 50-day SMA 426.67 · low 09-28 423.83 · low 10-01 423.00 · 100-day SMA 415.05 |
| S2 | 395.48–406.95 | -4.6% to -7.3% | low 08-24 406.95 · low 09-10 405.70 · low 04-28 401.65 · low 06-24 400.51 · low 06-26 398.12 · low 07-13 397.10 · 50% 396.89 · low 05-07 396.21 · 40-wk SMA 395.48 |
| S3 | 382.00–392.45 | -8.0% to -10.5% | 200-day SMA 392.45 · low 07-02 392.30 · low 05-28 389.00 · low 05-05 388.26 · low 07-07 388.10 · low 04-16 387.66 · low 09-14 387.00 · low 09-03 384.77 · wk low 07-17 382.00 |
| Targets | 535.62 · 628.85 | +25.5% · +47.4% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 478.00 → 384.77 pullback · 2-yr channel top 491.69 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 415.05 (-2.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 395.48–406.95.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 395.48 (-7.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 382.00–392.45.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 437.34 (+2.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 431.25 · Est. Down < 428.95 (+0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 460.11 · Early Up ≥ 439.14 · Est. Down < 436.79.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p43: “After stalling at its 162% extension level near 472 and pulling back, ETN is oversold short-term and beginning to bottom near its rising 200-day ma.”
- CB Sep 15 p43: “ETN remains in volatile trading range above support and a stop loss level near 375-380.”
- CB Sep 22 p39: “ETN has consolidated above 380 support and 200-day moving average with another rally taking hold.”
- CB Oct 13: “GEV and ETN remain in consolidations above their support bands.”
- CB Oct 13 p53: “ETN remains range bound but we view its consolidation as orderly above support near its red 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).