SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan · held position
Last Price $73.29
Unrealized G/L +55.4% (+$16,671)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 1.22% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($78.64–80.24); review on a Friday close below $71.45.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 10 weeks (+12.8% relative)
Leading materials (XLB) for 11 weeks (+22.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $75.64 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 10-05, LH 09-30) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $78.64–80.24 | +7.3% to +9.5% | LH 09-08, ATH 08-26 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $71.45 | -2.5% | floor of first-support band S1 (71.45) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $68.20 | -6.9% | trend stop; next support $65.71–67.68 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $71.45): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $68.20): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $65.71–67.68.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “FCX also remains in a consolidation above support in the upper 60s-low 70s. First resistance is at 74 followed by 80 then 95-96” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $70.22 (-4.2%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $71.45 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · FCX · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (71.45); the 40-wk SMA 64.42 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $71.45–72.37 | -1.3% to -2.5% | low 09-01, 50-day SMA, 20-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $71.45 | -2.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 68.20–70.13 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $75.64 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 10-05, LH 09-30) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 80.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 3.6 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 85.6 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 80.6 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 77.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 82.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 77.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FCX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.57% | +1.02% | Est. Up ≥ 70.22 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 64.18 |
| Trend · XLB | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.03% | +2.67% | Est. Up ≥ 66.36 (-9.5%) · Est. Down < 51.66 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.86% | +1.92% | Est. Up ≥ 73.38 (+0.1%) · Early Up ≥ 72.71 · Est. Down < 72.32 |
| Trading · XLB | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.71% | +1.04% | Est. Up ≥ 72.21 (-1.5%) · Est. Down < 68.28 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 73.29)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 83.84–83.84 | +14.4% to +14.4% | 127.2% ext. 83.84 |
| R2 | 78.64–80.24 | +7.3% to +9.5% | LH 09-08 78.64 · ATH 08-26 80.24 |
| R1 | 73.52–75.64 | +0.3% to +3.2% | LH 10-05 73.52 · LH 09-30 74.45 · LH 09-22 74.90 · high 09-02 75.64 |
| S1 | 71.45–72.37 | -1.3% to -2.5% | low 09-01 72.37 · 50-day SMA 71.78 · 20-day SMA 71.68 · low 09-03 71.45 |
| S2 | 68.20–70.13 | -4.3% to -6.9% | low 10-08 70.13 · low 09-28 69.46 · low 09-10 68.85 · low 10-01 68.20 |
| S3 | 65.71–67.68 | -7.7% to -10.3% | 100-day SMA 67.68 · low 04-21 67.46 · low 09-14 67.01 · low 02-26 65.82 · low 08-18 65.71 |
| Targets | 88.42 · 101.65 | +20.6% · +38.7% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 80.24 → 67.01 pullback · 2-yr channel top 88.93 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 71.45 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 68.20–70.13.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 68.20 (-6.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 65.71–67.68.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 70.22 (-4.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 70.22 · Est. Down < 64.18 (-12.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 73.38 · Early Up ≥ 72.71 · Est. Down < 72.32.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p53: FCX “is challenging resistance… which we expect will resolve to the upside with 95 the next extension level.”
- CB Sep 8 p55: “FCX’s long-term profile remains positive with a short-term pullback underway toward support between 65-71.”
- CB Sep 22 p40: “FCX’s long-term profile remains bullish with the recent pullback oversold and bottoming at its 50-day ma.”
- CB Oct 6 p55: “FCX is bottoming at support in the upper 60s-low 70s near its 50-62% retracement band.”
- CB Oct 13 p50: “FCX also remains in a consolidation above support in the upper 60s-low 70s. First resistance is at 74 followed by 80 then 95-96 at the 262% extension level.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).