SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
GOOG
Alphabet Inc. (Class C) · held position
Last Price $348.97
Unrealized G/L +111.1% (+$58,030)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.92% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($369.69–374.35); review on a Friday close below $339.02.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Lags S&P, leads sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 16 weeks (-9.1% relative)
Leading comm. services (XLC) for 1 week (+2.2% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $359.98 | +3.2% | top of R1 (100-day SMA, LH 10-01) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $369.69–374.35 | +5.9% to +7.3% | LH 06-09, LH 06-04, LH 07-07 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $339.02 | -2.9% | 40-wk SMA 339.02 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $329.29 | -5.6% | trend stop; next support $319.54–325.63 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $339.02): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $329.29): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $319.54–325.63.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “GOOGL continues to show signs of bottoming at important support near its red 200-day ma and 50-62% retracement band between 324-340 which serves as an important stop loss” (CB Oct 13; he charts GOOGL).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $350.66 (+0.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close below $339.02 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · GOOG · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 339.02.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $338.55–348.84 | -0.0% to -3.0% | low 07-14, low 07-09, low 06-11 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $338.55 | -3.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 329.29–337.45 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $359.98 | +3.2% | top of R1 (100-day SMA, LH 10-01) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Up. |
Scores · Trend 55.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 15.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 9.1 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 60.8 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 55.8 Neutral |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 84.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 21 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 89.6 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 84.6 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GOOG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.13% | +1.10% | Est. Up ≥ 390.35 (+11.9%) · Early Up ≥ 352.54 · Est. Down < 350.66 |
| Trend · XLC | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.53% | +4.37% | Est. Up ≥ 370.66 (+6.2%) · Early Up ≥ 343.19 · Est. Down < 341.36 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.11% | +0.39% | Est. Up ≥ 356.94 (+2.3%) · Early Up ≥ 345.78 · Est. Down < 343.93 |
| Trading · XLC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.20% | +0.29% | Est. Up ≥ 342.41 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 328.03 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 348.97)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 381.81–390.00 | +9.4% to +11.8% | LH 08-05 381.81 · LH 05-28 390.00 |
| R2 | 369.69–374.35 | +5.9% to +7.3% | LH 06-09 369.69 · LH 06-04 369.86 · LH 07-07 370.89 · LH 06-16 373.60 · LH 07-16 374.35 |
| R1 | 349.97–359.98 | +0.3% to +3.2% | 100-day SMA 349.97 · LH 10-01 350.09 · high 02-03 350.15 · LH 10-08 353.53 · high 07-20 359.49 · LH 09-22 359.98 |
| S1 | 338.55–348.84 | -0.0% to -3.0% | low 07-14 348.84 · low 07-09 348.66 · low 06-11 343.63 · 50-day SMA 343.24 · 20-day SMA 342.61 · low 07-17 341.12 · low 08-12 339.82 · 40-wk SMA 339.02 · 200-day SMA 338.55 |
| S2 | 329.29–337.45 | -3.3% to -5.6% | low 09-16 337.45 · low 08-20 336.17 · low 06-26 333.69 · low 09-24 332.81 · low 10-01 332.65 · low 09-01 329.29 |
| S3 | 319.54–325.63 | -6.7% to -8.4% | low 09-09 325.63 · 50% 322.61 · low 01-21 319.54 |
| Targets | 459.83 · 549.41 | +31.8% · +57.4% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 404.47 → 314.89 pullback · 2-yr channel top 513.85 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 338.55 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 329.29–337.45.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 329.29 (-5.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 319.54–325.63.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 390.35 (+11.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 352.54 · Est. Down < 350.66 (+0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 356.94 · Early Up ≥ 345.78 · Est. Down < 343.93.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 15 p38: “GOOGL has pulled back to its rising 200-day ma and is showing early signs of bottoming at its 50-62% retracement band.”
- CB Sep 22 p36: “GOOGL’s weekly momentum… is oversold and turning up as GOOGL bottoms at its 50-62% retracement level near its rising red 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 6 p48: “…bottoms near support near its 50-62% retracement level between 324-340 coinciding with its red rising 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 p42: “GOOGL continues to show signs of bottoming at important support near its red 200-day ma and 50-62% retracement band between 324-340 which serves as an important stop loss.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLC relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). We hold GOOG (Class C); Sluymer's charts use GOOGL (Class A), the same company and near-identical trend. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).