HOOD held card v5

APPENDIX · HOOD · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (107.69); the 40-wk SMA 93.09 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$107.69–108.89	-0.3% to -1.4%	low 07-08, low 07-13, low 07-10
Trading stop · daily close	below $107.69	-1.4%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 102.10–105.11
Breakout Buy Level	close above $112.50	+3.0%	top of R1 (high 08-21, high 06-17)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Down: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 51.8

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	8.0 + 9.0 / 30
Structure	16 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating	10.0 / 20
Band position	6.8 / 10
Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising)	7 / 10
Raw	56.8 (Neutral)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	51.8 Neutral
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5

Scores · Trading 28.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	17 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	13.6 / 20
Raw	33.1 (Early Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	28.1 Established Down
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (HOOD close needed)
Trend · S&P	3 Neutral (−) ↓	+0.09%	-9.49%	Est. Up ≥ 109.49 (+0.2%) · Est. Down < 108.45
Trend · XLF	1 Established Up (−) →	+5.22%	-8.51%	Est. Up ≥ 104.08 (-4.7%) · Est. Down < 102.30
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (−) →	-5.43%	-0.33%	Early Up ≥ 115.13 · Est. Down < 114.52
Trading · XLF	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-6.07%	-2.62%	Est. Up ≥ 145.45 (+33.2%) · Early Up ≥ 115.98 · Est. Down < 115.36

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 109.22)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	117.85–120.88	+7.9% to +10.7%	high 07-07 117.85 · high 10-02 119.38 · LH 07-10 119.43 · LH 07-02 120.05 · LH 01-14 120.88
R2	114.25–116.60	+4.6% to +6.8%	20-day SMA 114.25 · high 09-14 116.35 · LH 07-15 116.60
R1	109.71–112.50	+0.4% to +3.0%	high 08-21 109.71 · high 06-17 110.73 · LH 01-23 111.46 · high 08-27 112.07 · LH 08-25 112.45 · LH 06-22 112.50
S1	107.69–108.89	-0.3% to -1.4%	low 07-08 108.89 · low 07-13 108.84 · low 07-10 108.81 · 50-day SMA 107.69
S2	102.10–105.11	-3.8% to -6.5%	low 10-08 105.11 · low 01-20 104.45 · low 06-18 103.46 · low 08-25 102.80 · 100-day SMA 102.16 · low ’25-11-21 102.10
S3	100.68–101.71	-6.9% to -7.8%	low 09-16 101.71 · low 08-31 100.68
Targets	209.69 · 300.04	+92.0% · +174.7%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 153.86 → 63.51 pullback · 2-yr channel top 250.23

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 107.69 (-1.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 102.10–105.11.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 102.10 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 100.68–101.71.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 109.49 (+0.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 109.49 · Est. Down < 108.45 (-0.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 115.13 · Est. Down < 114.52.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: “Banks, such as JPM and BAC, are oversold at support.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLF relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $112.50	+3.0%	top of R1 (high 08-21, high 06-17)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$114.25–116.60	+4.6% to +6.8%	20-day SMA, high 09-14, LH 07-15
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $107.69	-1.4%	floor of first-support band S1 (107.69)
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $102.10	-6.5%	trend stop; next support $100.68–101.71

HOOD

Trend health

Key levels for holders