SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson · held position
Last Price $263.73
Unrealized G/L +11.0% (+$8,315)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.19% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($273.73–281.07); review on a Friday close below $255.34.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 2 weeks (-4.4% relative)
Lagging health care (XLV) for 2 weeks (-3.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $271.55 | +3.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $273.73–281.07 | +3.8% to +6.6% | LH 09-21, wk high 07-31, LH 09-24 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $255.34 | -3.2% | floor of first-support band S1 (255.34) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $244.69 | -7.2% | trend stop; next support $239.12–243.56 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $255.34): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $244.69): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $239.12–243.56.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLV is Early Up / Early Up vs the S&P, “challenging the 2022-2026 downtrend” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $246.93 (-6.4%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Down or better; a Friday close below $255.34 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · JNJ · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (255.34); the 40-wk SMA 244.69 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $255.34–260.68 | -1.2% to -3.2% | low 09-15, 100-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $255.34 | -3.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 244.69–251.17 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $271.55 | +3.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 45.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 3.7 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 50.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 45.3 Neutral |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 27.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 32.9 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 27.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JNJ close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.90% | -4.45% | Est. Up ≥ 269.90 (+2.3%) · Est. Down < 246.93 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.09% | -3.67% | Est. Up ≥ 270.97 (+2.7%) · Early Up ≥ 270.39 · Est. Down < 268.95 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.66% | +1.97% | Est. Up ≥ 292.11 (+10.8%) · Early Up ≥ 265.82 · Est. Down < 264.40 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.46% | +0.16% | Est. Up ≥ 295.53 (+12.1%) · Early Up ≥ 268.01 · Est. Down < 266.58 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 263.73)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 289.20–289.20 | +9.7% to +9.7% | 127.2% ext. 289.20 |
| R2 | 273.73–281.07 | +3.8% to +6.6% | LH 09-21 273.73 · wk high 07-31 274.90 · LH 09-24 275.23 · high 08-19 276.47 · ATH 09-02 281.07 |
| R1 | 264.56–271.55 | +0.3% to +3.0% | 20-day SMA 264.56 · 50-day SMA 265.48 · wk high 07-10 269.43 · LH 09-14 271.55 |
| S1 | 255.34–260.68 | -1.2% to -3.2% | low 09-15 260.68 · 100-day SMA 255.34 |
| S2 | 244.69–251.17 | -4.8% to -7.2% | low 10-06 251.17 · 50% 250.72 · wk low 08-07 250.44 · wk low 07-24 245.49 · 40-wk SMA 244.69 |
| S3 | 239.12–243.56 | -7.6% to -9.3% | 61.8% 243.56 · 200-day SMA 243.21 · channel floor 239.12 |
| Targets | 299.55 · 329.45 | +13.6% · +24.9% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 281.07 → 251.17 pullback · 2-yr channel top 308.71 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 255.34 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 244.69–251.17.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 244.69 (-7.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 239.12–243.56.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 269.90 (+2.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 269.90 · Est. Down < 246.93 (-6.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 292.11 · Early Up ≥ 265.82 · Est. Down < 264.40.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).