SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co. · held position
Last Price $334.30
Unrealized G/L +41.4% (+$32,503)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.95% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $321.79 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-6.7% relative)
Lagging financials (XLF) for 1 week (-2.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $343.45 | +2.7% | top of R1 (high 01-05, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $349.79–360.05 | +4.6% to +7.7% | 50-day SMA, high 07-15, LH 09-21 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $321.79 | -3.7% | 40-wk SMA 321.79 |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $305.54 | -8.6% | trend stop; next support $290.54–298.46 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $321.79): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $305.54): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $290.54–298.46.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “JPM has pulled back to its 50-62% support band between 321-330 just above its rising 200-day ma which we expect will support an oversold rebound heading into earnings season” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $354.75 (+6.1%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close below $321.79 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · JPM · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 321.79.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $320.24–326.40 | -2.4% to -4.2% | wk high 02-13, low 10-01, low 10-07 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $320.24 | -4.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 305.54–313.27 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $343.45 | +2.7% | top of R1 (high 01-05, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 38.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 43.5 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 38.5 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 15.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 20.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 15.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JPM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -6.28% | -3.78% | Est. Up ≥ 356.65 (+6.7%) · Est. Down < 354.75 |
| Trend · XLF | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.31% | -2.74% | Est. Up ≥ 338.38 (+1.2%) · Est. Down < 335.45 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.96% | +1.36% | Est. Up ≥ 385.57 (+15.3%) · Early Up ≥ 338.16 · Est. Down < 336.35 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.65% | -0.96% | Est. Up ≥ 363.61 (+8.8%) · Early Up ≥ 340.69 · Est. Down < 338.87 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 334.30)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 362.86–366.50 | +8.5% to +9.6% | LH 09-04 362.86 · ATH 08-13 366.50 |
| R2 | 349.79–360.05 | +4.6% to +7.7% | 50-day SMA 349.79 · high 07-15 351.24 · LH 09-21 354.50 · LH 09-16 355.60 · high 07-28 359.30 · LH 09-11 360.05 |
| R1 | 337.25–343.45 | +0.9% to +2.7% | high 01-05 337.25 · 20-day SMA 338.57 · 100-day SMA 338.74 · LH 09-25 343.31 · high 06-25 343.45 |
| S1 | 320.24–326.40 | -2.4% to -4.2% | wk high 02-13 326.40 · low 10-01 325.87 · low 10-07 325.07 · low 07-01 325.01 · 50% 322.80 · 200-day SMA 322.18 · 40-wk SMA 321.79 · wk high 04-24 320.24 |
| S2 | 305.54–313.27 | -6.3% to -8.6% | channel floor 313.27 · 61.8% 312.49 · low 02-05 305.54 |
| S3 | 290.54–298.46 | -10.7% to -13.1% | low ’25-12-10 298.46 · low ’25-11-18 297.02 · wk low 01-23 296.51 · low 05-29 295.20 · low ’25-10-14 294.21 · wk low 05-22 293.67 · low ’25-11-21 292.81 · low 02-24 291.38 · low ’25-10-22 290.54 |
| Targets | 392.10 · 433.53 | +17.3% · +29.7% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 366.50 → 325.07 pullback · 2-yr channel top 397.11 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 320.24 (-4.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 305.54–313.27.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 305.54 (-8.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 290.54–298.46.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 356.65 (+6.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 356.65 · Est. Down < 354.75 (+6.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 385.57 · Early Up ≥ 338.16 · Est. Down < 336.35.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Banks, such as JPM and BAC, are oversold at support.”
- CB Oct 13 p58: “JPM has pulled back to its 50-62% support band between 321-330 just above its rising 200-day ma which we expect will support an oversold rebound heading into earnings season.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLF relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).