SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
LLY
Eli Lilly · held position
Last Price $1182.62
Unrealized G/L +10.9% (+$8,049)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.16% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. Relative trend turned down (opportunity cost); price is above the $1147.00 Trade Breakdown. Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 7 weeks (-7.7% relative)
Lagging health care (XLV) for 9 weeks (-3.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $1215.00 | +2.7% | top of R1 (high 06-08, LH 09-01) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $1230.88–1249.45 | +4.1% to +5.7% | high 08-06, high 07-28, high 06-29 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $1147.00 | -3.0% | floor of first-support band S1 (1147.00) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $1109.15 | -6.2% | trend stop; next support $1052.15–1079.22 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $1147.00): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $1109.15): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $1052.15–1079.22.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLV is Early Up / Early Up vs the S&P, “challenging the 2022-2026 downtrend” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $1199.48 (+1.4%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Down or better; a Friday close below $1147.00 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · LLY · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (1147.00); the 40-wk SMA 1077.83 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $1147.00–1174.64 | -0.7% to -3.0% | 50-day SMA, low 07-01, 20-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $1147.00 | -3.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 1109.15–1139.00 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $1215.00 | +2.7% | top of R1 (high 06-08, LH 09-01) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 43.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.1 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 48.7 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 43.7 Early Down |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 49.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 54.0 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 49.0 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (LLY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↑ | -2.35% | -1.22% | Est. Up ≥ 1248.13 (+5.5%) · Early Up ≥ 1205.88 · Est. Down < 1199.48 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.55% | -0.42% | Est. Up ≥ 1363.78 (+15.3%) · Early Up ≥ 1208.23 · Est. Down < 1201.83 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +0.33% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 1182.03 (-0.0%) · Est. Down < 1163.18 |
| Trading · XLV | 4 Early Down (−) → | -0.49% | -2.35% | Est. Up ≥ 1191.98 (+0.8%) · Est. Down < 1177.58 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1182.62)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1292.65–1292.65 | +9.3% to +9.3% | ATH 08-19 1292.65 |
| R2 | 1230.88–1249.45 | +4.1% to +5.7% | high 08-06 1230.88 · high 07-28 1232.00 · high 06-29 1238.00 · high 08-13 1240.10 · wk high 07-10 1249.45 |
| R1 | 1182.73–1215.00 | +0.0% to +2.7% | high 06-08 1182.73 · LH 09-01 1188.33 · high 07-16 1189.07 · LH 09-24 1197.79 · LH 10-07 1206.63 · LH 09-30 1215.00 |
| S1 | 1147.00–1174.64 | -0.7% to -3.0% | 50-day SMA 1174.64 · low 07-01 1173.93 · 20-day SMA 1163.53 · low 08-17 1163.50 · low 08-07 1161.20 · 100-day SMA 1160.98 · low 08-31 1147.00 |
| S2 | 1109.15–1139.00 | -3.7% to -6.2% | low 07-21 1139.00 · low 10-02 1136.66 · low 09-21 1134.41 · low 07-15 1134.40 · low 10-08 1131.21 · low 09-08 1113.55 · low 09-11 1113.29 · wk low 08-07 1109.15 |
| S3 | 1052.15–1079.22 | -8.7% to -11.0% | low 06-23 1079.22 · 40-wk SMA 1077.83 · 200-day SMA 1077.06 · 50% 1071.58 · low 06-02 1052.15 |
| Targets | 1403.49 · 1582.85 | +18.7% · +33.8% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 1292.65 → 1113.29 pullback · 2-yr channel top 1415.77 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 1147.00 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 1109.15–1139.00.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 1109.15 (-6.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 1052.15–1079.22.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1248.13 (+5.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 1205.88 · Est. Down < 1199.48 (+1.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1182.03 · Est. Down < 1163.18.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).