SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
MCK
McKesson Corp. · held position
Last Price $955.76
Unrealized G/L +24.8% (+$15,973)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.09% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($999.00–999.00); review on a Friday close below $906.65.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 13 weeks (+13.0% relative)
Leading health care (XLV) for 2 weeks (+8.3% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $971.93 | +1.7% | top of R1 (LH 03-13, high 02-05) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $999.00–999.00 | +4.5% to +4.5% | ATH 03-03 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $906.65 | -5.1% | floor of first-support band S1 (906.65) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $874.31 | -8.5% | trend stop; next support $845.52–864.32 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $906.65): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $874.31): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $845.52–864.32.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLV is Early Up / Early Up vs the S&P, “challenging the 2022-2026 downtrend” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $887.44 (-7.1%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $906.65 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · MCK · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (906.65); the 40-wk SMA 851.58 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $906.65–929.95 | -2.7% to -5.1% | wk high 09-04, wk high 08-07, low 03-06 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $906.65 | -5.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 874.31–894.59 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $971.93 | +1.7% | top of R1 (LH 03-13, high 02-05) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 80.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 3.1 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 85.1 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 80.1 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 81.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 86.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 81.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MCK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.63% | +7.39% | Est. Up ≥ 887.44 (-7.1%) · Est. Down < 669.03 |
| Trend · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.42% | +8.26% | Est. Up ≥ 889.20 (-7.0%) · Est. Down < 732.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.63% | +4.92% | Est. Up ≥ 907.84 (-5.0%) · Est. Down < 785.94 |
| Trading · XLV | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.73% | +3.05% | Est. Up ≥ 915.81 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 796.62 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 955.76)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1073.89–1089.07 | +12.4% to +13.9% | 127.2% ext. 1073.89 · channel top 1089.07 |
| R2 | 999.00–999.00 | +4.5% to +4.5% | ATH 03-03 999.00 |
| R1 | 959.95–971.93 | +0.4% to +1.7% | LH 03-13 959.95 · high 02-05 971.93 |
| S1 | 906.65–929.95 | -2.7% to -5.1% | wk high 09-04 929.95 · wk high 08-07 912.50 · low 03-06 909.77 · low 10-08 906.65 |
| S2 | 874.31–894.59 | -6.4% to -8.5% | low 02-12 894.59 · 20-day SMA 894.18 · 50-day SMA 885.71 · low 10-02 881.40 · low 09-08 877.53 · low 08-31 876.48 · low 09-11 874.31 |
| S3 | 845.52–864.32 | -9.6% to -11.5% | low 08-07 864.32 · low 09-18 864.12 · low 08-14 852.99 · 40-wk SMA 851.58 · 200-day SMA 850.83 · low 09-29 847.29 · low 03-31 846.73 · low 04-07 845.52 |
| Targets | 1169.15 · 1444.47 | +22.3% · +51.1% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 999.00 → 723.68 pullback · 2-yr channel top 1089.07 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 906.65 (-5.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 874.31–894.59.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 874.31 (-8.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 845.52–864.32.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 887.44 (-7.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 887.44 · Est. Down < 669.03 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 907.84 · Est. Down < 785.94.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).