SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
META
Meta Platforms · held position
Last Price $742.96
Unrealized G/L +33.2% (+$12,221)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 1.27% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($766.51–779.82); review on a Friday close below $711.68.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 6 weeks (+22.7% relative)
Leading comm. services (XLC) for 6 weeks (+27.3% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $759.16 | +2.2% | top of R1 (high ’25-09-30, LH 01-29) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $766.51–779.82 | +3.2% to +5.0% | LH ’25-09-08, LH 09-24 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $711.68 | -4.2% | floor of first-support band S1 (711.68) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $686.08 | -7.7% | trend stop; next support $643.46–660.80 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $711.68): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $686.08): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $643.46–660.80.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. “META is consolidating its recent surge in a sideways band that likely has another 2-3 weeks before another upside attempt develops” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $648.05 (-12.8%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $711.68 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · META · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (711.68); the 40-wk SMA 626.28 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $711.68–731.00 | -1.6% to -4.2% | low ’25-08-20, 20-day SMA, low ’25-09-02 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $711.68 | -4.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 686.08–699.33 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $759.16 | +2.2% | top of R1 (high ’25-09-30, LH 01-29) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Neutral: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 71.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 2.0 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 76.0 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 71.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 53.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 58.5 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 53.5 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (META close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +11.86% | -5.22% | Est. Up ≥ 648.05 (-12.8%) · Est. Down < 520.07 |
| Trend · XLC | 1 Established Up (−) → | +14.85% | -2.15% | Est. Up ≥ 631.02 (-15.1%) · Est. Down < 520.07 |
| Trading · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↓ | +0.17% | +2.93% | Est. Up ≥ 743.76 (+0.1%) · Est. Down < 704.11 |
| Trading · XLC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.28% | +2.83% | Est. Up ≥ 736.32 (-0.9%) · Est. Down < 644.04 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 742.96)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 789.55–796.25 | +6.3% to +7.2% | channel top 789.55 · LH ’25-09-19 790.80 · ATH ’25-08-15 796.25 |
| R2 | 766.51–779.82 | +3.2% to +5.0% | LH ’25-09-08 766.51 · LH 09-24 779.82 |
| R1 | 742.97–759.16 | +0.0% to +2.2% | high ’25-09-30 742.97 · LH 01-29 744.00 · LH 10-06 747.60 · LH ’25-08-25 758.88 · LH ’25-10-29 759.16 |
| S1 | 711.68–731.00 | -1.6% to -4.2% | low ’25-08-20 731.00 · 20-day SMA 723.05 · low ’25-09-02 721.73 · low 09-28 713.19 · low 10-08 711.68 |
| S2 | 686.08–699.33 | -5.9% to -7.7% | low ’25-10-14 699.33 · low ’25-10-06 690.51 · wk high 07-17 686.08 |
| S3 | 643.46–660.80 | -11.1% to -13.4% | low 09-18 660.80 · low ’25-12-29 654.39 · low 04-23 653.05 · low 07-14 649.05 · low 02-06 646.50 · low 01-02 643.50 · 50-day SMA 643.46 |
| Targets | 966.81 · 1242.80 | +30.1% · +67.3% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 796.25 → 520.26 pullback · 2-yr channel top 789.55 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 711.68 (-4.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 686.08–699.33.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 686.08 (-7.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 643.46–660.80.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 648.05 (-12.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 648.05 · Est. Down < 520.07 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 743.76 · Est. Down < 704.11.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p45: “META remains range bound with a pullback retesting important support and stop loss level between 525-540.”
- CB Sep 22 p35: “META has reversed its 2025-2026 downtrend… pullbacks will be short lived with 796 followed by 967 next technical levels.”
- CB Sep 29 p39: “META is pulling back from short-term overbought levels with 622-652 support near the 50-62% retracement levels.”
- CB Oct 13 p41: “META is consolidating its recent surge in a sideways band that likely has another 2-3 weeks before another upside attempt develops based on the daily momentum in the top right panel.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLC relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).