SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
MSFT
Microsoft Corp. · held position
Last Price $541.15
Unrealized G/L +183.6% (+$58,160)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.32% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($611.55–611.55); review on a Friday close below $505.04.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 11 weeks (+33.0% relative)
Leading tech (XLK) for 11 weeks (+24.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $569.92 | +5.3% | top of R1 (LH ’25-10-28, ATH ’25-07-31) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $611.55–611.55 | +13.0% to +13.0% | 127.2% ext. |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $505.04 | -6.7% | floor of first-support band S1 (505.04) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $487.23 | -10.0% | trend stop; next support $475.08–486.00 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $505.04): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $487.23): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $475.08–486.00.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. Last named Sep 8: “MSFT is pausing near resistance at 507 with support starting at 478 followed by 453” (CB Sep 8).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $482.06 (-10.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $505.04 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · MSFT · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (505.04); the 40-wk SMA 432.72 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $505.04–518.79 | -4.1% to -6.7% | low 10-08, low ’25-08-07, 20-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $505.04 | -6.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 487.23–501.98 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $569.92 | +5.3% | top of R1 (LH ’25-10-28, ATH ’25-07-31) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 81.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 4.9 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 86.9 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 81.9 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 84.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 89.8 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 84.8 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MSFT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.53% | +2.76% | Est. Up ≥ 482.06 (-10.9%) · Est. Down < 378.81 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +8.07% | +2.35% | Est. Up ≥ 502.17 (-7.2%) · Est. Down < 378.81 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.74% | +2.08% | Est. Up ≥ 524.53 (-3.1%) · Est. Down < 433.07 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +5.24% | +4.77% | Est. Up ≥ 516.71 (-4.5%) · Est. Down < 445.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 541.15)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 682.91–682.91 | +26.2% to +26.2% | 161.8% ext. 682.91 |
| R2 | 611.55–611.55 | +13.0% to +13.0% | 127.2% ext. 611.55 |
| R1 | 553.72–569.92 | +2.3% to +5.3% | LH ’25-10-28 553.72 · ATH ’25-07-31 555.45 · channel top 569.92 |
| S1 | 505.04–518.79 | -4.1% to -6.7% | low 10-08 518.79 · low ’25-08-07 517.55 · 20-day SMA 511.89 · low ’25-09-30 509.66 · low ’25-10-17 507.31 · low ’25-10-14 506.00 · low ’25-09-17 505.93 · low ’25-09-25 505.04 |
| S2 | 487.23–501.98 | -7.2% to -10.0% | 50-day SMA 501.98 · low ’25-08-26 498.51 · low ’25-09-02 496.81 · low 09-02 493.81 · low ’25-11-07 493.25 · low ’25-09-05 492.37 · low 08-12 491.52 · low 09-24 491.22 · low 09-16 487.23 |
| S3 | 475.08–486.00 | -10.2% to -12.2% | low 09-10 486.00 · low 08-21 478.53 · low 08-18 477.15 · low ’25-12-03 475.20 · low ’25-12-10 475.08 |
| Targets | 682.91 · 889.16 | +26.2% · +64.3% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 555.45 → 349.20 pullback · 2-yr channel top 569.92 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 505.04 (-6.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 487.23–501.98.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 487.23 (-10.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 475.08–486.00.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 482.06 (-10.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 482.06 · Est. Down < 378.81 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 524.53 · Est. Down < 433.07.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p43: “MSFT’s rebound is pausing near next resistance between 470-493 with support in the 405-430 range expected to hold.”
- CB Sep 8 p46: “MSFT is pausing near resistance at 507 with support starting at 478 followed by 453 near its rising blue 50-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).