SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · held position
Last Price $226.32
Unrealized G/L +70.5% (+$66,062)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 4.36% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($234.76–236.54); review on a Friday close below $217.91.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Established Up
Leads S&P, lags sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 10 weeks (+9.5% relative)
Lagging tech (XLK) for 1 week (-1.5% relative)
Leading semis (SOXX) for 11 weeks (+4.4% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $232.28 | +2.6% | top of R1 (high 05-21, 20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $234.76–236.54 | +3.7% to +4.5% | wk high 09-04, wk high 05-15 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $217.91 | -3.7% | floor of first-support band S1 (217.91) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $208.78 | -7.8% | trend stop; next support $201.41–207.25 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $217.91): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $208.78): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $201.41–207.25.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “NVDA is pulling back from its 162% extension near 242 with support between 210-217” (CB Oct 13); he expects semiconductor pullbacks to be short lived.
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $222.38 (-1.7%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below $217.91 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · NVDA · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (217.91); the 40-wk SMA 202.38 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $217.91–222.59 | -1.6% to -3.7% | 50-day SMA, low 05-19 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $217.91 | -3.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 208.78–215.10 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $232.28 | +2.6% | top of R1 (high 05-21, 20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Down. |
Scores · Trend 80.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 4.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 30 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising | 20.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 3.8 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 85.1 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 80.1 Established Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 44.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 49.7 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 44.7 Early Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NVDA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.88% | +0.98% | Est. Up ≥ 222.38 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 194.66 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -0.29% | +0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 231.82 (+2.4%) · Est. Down < 200.81 |
| Trend · SOXX (info) | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.30% | +4.29% | Est. Up ≥ 225.18 (-0.5%) · Est. Down < 158.42 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -2.59% | -4.76% | Est. Up ≥ 233.13 (+3.0%) · Est. Down < 230.11 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.17% | -2.25% | Est. Up ≥ 235.51 (+4.1%) · Early Up ≥ 229.63 · Est. Down < 228.40 |
| Trading · SOXX (info) | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.01% | +1.95% | Est. Up ≥ 220.45 (-2.6%) · Est. Down < 216.75 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 226.32)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 243.37–248.39 | +7.5% to +9.8% | ATH 10-06 243.37 · 127.2% ext. 248.39 |
| R2 | 234.76–236.54 | +3.7% to +4.5% | wk high 09-04 234.76 · wk high 05-15 236.54 |
| R1 | 227.40–232.28 | +0.5% to +2.6% | high 05-21 227.40 · 20-day SMA 227.50 · high 08-17 227.92 · high 08-27 230.47 · high 06-02 232.28 |
| S1 | 217.91–222.59 | -1.6% to -3.7% | 50-day SMA 222.59 · low 05-19 217.91 |
| S2 | 208.78–215.10 | -5.0% to -7.8% | low 09-01 215.10 · 100-day SMA 214.38 · wk low 09-18 208.93 · low 05-27 208.78 |
| S3 | 201.41–207.25 | -8.4% to -11.0% | low 08-24 207.25 · 50% 203.82 · low 06-17 203.08 · 40-wk SMA 202.38 · 200-day SMA 202.34 · low ’25-10-30 201.41 |
| S4 | 194.49–199.34 | -11.9% to -14.1% | low 06-09 199.34 · low 07-17 197.97 · low 05-04 194.74 · 61.8% 194.49 |
| S5 | 189.80–191.14 | -15.5% to -16.1% | low 07-07 191.14 · wk low 07-31 190.01 · wk low 07-03 189.80 |
| Targets | 254.78 · 273.25 | +12.6% · +20.7% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 243.37 → 224.90 pullback · 2-yr channel top 284.91 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 217.91 (-3.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 208.78–215.10.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 208.78 (-7.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 201.41–207.25.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 222.38 (-1.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 222.38 · Est. Down < 194.66 (-14.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 233.13 · Est. Down < 230.11.
Sluymer context — all 15 reports
- CB Sep 15 p36: “challenge first support at 207 with critical support/stop loss near 190.”
- CB Sep 22 p33: the consolidation below 236 should “resolve to the upside with 265 the next extension level.”
- CB Oct 6 p43: “finally resolving its Q3 trading range to the upside with the next extension level at 265.”
- RM Oct 9: SOX “stalling short term”; “premature to conclude a cycle top is in place.”
- CB Oct 13 p36: “NVDA is pulling back from its 162% extension near 242 with support between 210-217.”
- CB Oct 13: “The SOX Semiconductor remains a lightning rod… Another pullback is underway”; “we expect pullbacks will be short lived.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts) ; SOXX is info only. Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).