SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
PWR
Quanta Services · held position
Last Price $694.79
Unrealized G/L +58.4% (+$38,928)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.79% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend intact. Take profits only to rebalance ($719.53–738.00); review on a Friday close below $683.00.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Up
Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 2 weeks (+7.8% relative)
Leading industrials (XLI) for 5 weeks (+17.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $715.92 | +3.0% | top of R1 (LH 08-12, LH 08-04) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $719.53–738.00 | +3.6% to +6.2% | high 06-25, LH 06-30, LH 10-06 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $683.00 | -1.7% | floor of first-support band S1 (683.00) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $650.17 | -6.4% | trend stop; next support $624.61–642.11 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (Friday close < $683.00): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $650.17): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $624.61–642.11.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. Last named Aug 18: “PWR’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and poised to turn up as PWR extends its rebound from its 40-week ma” (CB Aug 18).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $668.94 (-3.7%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Up or better; a Friday close below $683.00 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · PWR · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (683.00); the 40-wk SMA 620.87 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $683.00–690.79 | -0.6% to -1.7% | low 05-19, low 06-24, low 06-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $683.00 | -1.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 650.17–669.80 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $715.92 | +3.0% | top of R1 (LH 08-12, LH 08-04) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 70.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 15.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 3.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 75.6 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 70.6 Early Up |
| ✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 78.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 83.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 78.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PWR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +5.19% | +7.80% | Est. Up ≥ 756.09 (+8.8%) · Early Up ≥ 668.94 · Est. Down < 665.39 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +13.12% | +9.51% | Est. Up ≥ 624.47 (-10.1%) · Est. Down < 593.56 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.94% | -0.97% | Est. Up ≥ 678.82 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 541.70 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.91% | -1.66% | Est. Up ≥ 672.59 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 512.03 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 694.79)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 742.73–748.69 | +6.9% to +7.8% | LH 06-22 742.73 · LH 05-26 748.69 |
| R2 | 719.53–738.00 | +3.6% to +6.2% | high 06-25 719.53 · LH 06-30 721.37 · LH 10-06 722.21 · LH 08-17 724.80 · LH 06-03 730.04 · LH 06-16 738.00 |
| R1 | 695.51–715.92 | +0.1% to +3.0% | LH 08-12 695.51 · LH 08-04 708.06 · LH 06-09 715.92 |
| S1 | 683.00–690.79 | -0.6% to -1.7% | low 05-19 690.79 · low 06-24 687.60 · low 06-01 683.26 · low 06-26 683.00 |
| S2 | 650.17–669.80 | -3.6% to -6.4% | low 10-08 669.80 · 100-day SMA 666.75 · 20-day SMA 658.33 · low 08-07 657.46 · low 08-03 654.26 · 50-day SMA 652.42 · low 07-02 650.17 |
| S3 | 624.61–642.11 | -7.6% to -10.1% | low 06-10 642.11 · low 07-07 641.91 · low 09-24 626.41 · low 07-22 624.61 |
| Targets | 933.75 · 1168.38 | +34.4% · +68.2% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 788.75 → 554.12 pullback · 2-yr channel top 916.80 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 683.00 (-1.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 650.17–669.80.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 650.17 (-6.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 624.61–642.11.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 756.09 (+8.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 668.94 · Est. Down < 665.39 (-4.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 678.82 · Est. Down < 541.70.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18: Infrastructure/Construction stocks “such as PWR and FIX, continue to [build] positively from oversold levels reached in July.”
- CB Aug 18 p38: “PWR’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and poised to turn up as PWR extends its rebound from its 40-week ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).