SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
RTX
RTX Corp. · held position
Last Price $186.66
Unrealized G/L +75.9% (+$32,533)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 2.00% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $195.43 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Lags S&P and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 6 weeks (-13.3% relative)
Lagging industrials (XLI) for 3 weeks (-3.9% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $188.51 | +1.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $194.17–197.67 | +4.0% to +5.9% | high 06-18, 200-day SMA, high 09-23 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $195.43 | +4.7% | 40-wk SMA 195.43 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $179.02 | -4.1% | trend stop; next support $170.78–172.55 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $195.43): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $179.02): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is already lagging the S&P, so the opportunity-cost case for exiting is stronger. Next support $170.78–172.55.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLI is Est. Down / Est. Down (+); “GE has pulled back to support while GEV and ETN remain in consolidations above their support bands” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $206.43 (+10.6%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above $195.43 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $179.02 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · RTX · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 195.43 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $180.97–185.57 | -0.6% to -3.0% | wk low 04-03, low 01-09, low 06-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $180.97 | -3.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 179.02–179.02 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $188.51 | +1.0% | top of R1 (20-day SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 40.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 19 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — positive but decelerating | 10.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 7.0 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 45.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 40.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 |
Scores · Trading 22.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 27.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 22.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (RTX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.95% | -2.67% | Est. Up ≥ 207.53 (+11.2%) · Est. Down < 206.43 |
| Trend · XLI | 4 Early Down (−) → | -3.03% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 193.38 (+3.6%) · Est. Down < 163.26 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -0.74% | +3.48% | Est. Up ≥ 212.89 (+14.1%) · Early Up ≥ 188.27 · Est. Down < 187.26 |
| Trading · XLI | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | +0.23% | +2.75% | Est. Up ≥ 203.92 (+9.2%) · Early Up ≥ 186.49 · Est. Down < 185.50 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 186.66)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 200.38–205.36 | +7.4% to +10.0% | LH 09-11 200.38 · 50-day SMA 202.73 · high 01-20 203.03 · high 07-07 203.94 · wk high 04-10 205.36 |
| R2 | 194.17–197.67 | +4.0% to +5.9% | high 06-18 194.17 · 200-day SMA 194.99 · high 09-23 195.07 · 40-wk SMA 195.43 · 100-day SMA 196.59 · high 01-08 196.70 · LH 09-16 197.67 |
| R1 | 188.51–188.51 | +1.0% to +1.0% | 20-day SMA 188.51 |
| S1 | 180.97–185.57 | -0.6% to -3.0% | wk low 04-03 185.57 · low 01-09 184.37 · low 06-22 180.97 |
| S2 | 179.02–179.02 | -4.1% to -4.1% | low 10-08 179.02 |
| S3 | 170.78–172.55 | -7.6% to -8.5% | low 06-03 172.55 · low 05-05 171.20 · wk low 05-15 170.78 |
| Targets | 256.46 · 304.32 | +37.4% · +63.0% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 226.88 → 179.02 pullback · 2-yr channel top 253.27 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 180.97 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 179.02–179.02.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 179.02 (-4.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 170.78–172.55.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 207.53 (+11.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 207.53 · Est. Down < 206.43 (+10.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 212.89 · Early Up ≥ 188.27 · Est. Down < 187.26.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Industrials – GE has pulled back to support while GEV and ETN remain in consolidations above their support bands.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).