SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL
TSLA
Tesla Inc. · held position
Last Price $378.03
Unrealized G/L -20.8% (−$7,850)
Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 9)
Portfolio weight 0.79% (US)
REVIEWNo trade yet. The Friday close is below the $387.20 Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA). Re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend (8–16 wk)
● Early Down
Leads S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (+2.9% relative)
Leading cons. discretionary (XLY) for 5 weeks (+10.1% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $390.07 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 04-01, LH 10-06) |
Profit-Taking Zone
rebalance if overweight | $396.23–406.59 | +4.8% to +7.6% | LH 03-25, high 05-05, LH 07-15 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $387.20 | +2.4% | 40-wk SMA 387.20 (Friday close below it) |
Trend Breakdown
trim/sell if story weakened | Friday close below $349.92 | -7.4% | trend stop; next support $337.24–345.88 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (triggered at $387.20): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (Friday close < $349.92): trim or exit if the fundamental story has also weakened; RS is still leading the S&P, so favour a trim over a full exit. Next support $337.24–345.88.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLY is Est. Down (+) / Early Up; “Relative trend remains weak” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Oct 16: a Friday close ≥ $368.82 (-2.4%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Up or better; a Friday close back above $387.20 clears the Trade Breakdown; below $349.92 is trend breakdown.
APPENDIX · TSLA · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALLHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 387.20 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $364.02–373.42 | -1.2% to -3.7% | 100-day SMA, 20-day SMA, low 07-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $364.02 | -3.7% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 349.92–359.40 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $390.07 | +3.2% | top of R1 (LH 04-01, LH 10-06) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 43.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 30 |
| Coppock (weekly) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.0 / 20 |
| Band position | 6.2 / 10 |
| Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising) | 7 / 10 |
| Raw | 48.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 43.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 |
Scores · Trading 71.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 76.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | -5 |
| Final | 71.4 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TSLA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +3.42% | +1.95% | Est. Up ≥ 437.73 (+15.8%) · Early Up ≥ 368.82 · Est. Down < 366.86 |
| Trend · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) → | +7.64% | +0.76% | Est. Up ≥ 377.73 (-0.1%) · Early Up ≥ 355.20 · Est. Down < 353.31 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.90% | -0.01% | Est. Up ≥ 375.22 (-0.7%) · Est. Down < 369.55 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.33% | -0.75% | Est. Up ≥ 377.65 (-0.1%) · Est. Down < 363.71 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 378.03)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 408.62–420.34 | +8.1% to +11.2% | LH 03-05 408.62 · LH 04-17 409.28 · LH 07-10 413.16 · LH 06-22 414.75 · LH 06-15 416.00 · LH 03-11 416.38 · high 02-18 416.90 · high 06-09 418.50 · high 07-06 420.00 · LH 02-25 420.34 |
| R2 | 396.23–406.59 | +4.8% to +7.6% | LH 03-25 396.23 · high 05-05 402.12 · LH 07-15 406.59 |
| R1 | 383.14–390.07 | +1.4% to +3.2% | LH 04-01 383.14 · LH 10-06 383.33 · LH 09-03 384.04 · LH 09-25 386.83 · 40-wk SMA 387.20 · 200-day SMA 390.07 |
| S1 | 364.02–373.42 | -1.2% to -3.7% | 100-day SMA 373.42 · 20-day SMA 369.61 · low 07-20 369.43 · low 06-26 368.60 · low 04-30 368.17 · low 10-08 368.03 · low 03-20 364.46 · low 04-27 364.02 |
| S2 | 349.92–359.40 | -4.9% to -7.4% | 61.8% 359.40 · 50-day SMA 356.08 · low 09-15 354.05 · low 03-30 352.14 · low 09-04 351.32 · low 09-02 349.92 |
| S3 | 337.24–345.88 | -8.5% to -10.8% | low 09-30 345.88 · low 08-26 342.53 · low 04-07 337.24 |
| Targets | 623.33 · 824.78 | +64.9% · +118.2% | 161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 498.83 → 297.38 pullback · 2-yr channel top 562.10 |
Coppock, breadth and RS
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 364.02 (-3.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 349.92–359.40.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 349.92 (-7.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 337.24–345.88.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 437.73 (+15.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 368.82 · Est. Down < 366.86 (-3.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 375.22 · Est. Down < 369.55.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLY relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).