XOM held card v5

APPENDIX · XOM · SYSTEMATIC APPLICATION OF SLUYMER-STYLE METHOD — NOT SLUYMER'S OWN CALL

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = floor of first-support band S1 (169.64); the 40-wk SMA 151.36 is below the trend breakdown level, so it can't be the Trade Breakdown.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$169.64–169.64	-1.5% to -1.5%	wk high 09-18
Trading stop · daily close	below $169.64	-1.5%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 159.27–163.85
Breakout Buy Level	close above $176.41	+2.5%	top of R1 (ATH 03-30)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 84.0

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 30
Coppock (weekly) — positive & rising	20.0 / 20
Band position	7.0 / 10
Breadth proxy 30.2 (20–50 and rising)	7 / 10
Raw	89.0 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	84.0 Established Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5

Scores · Trading 84.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	20 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	14.1 / 20
Raw	89.1 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	-5
Final	84.1 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (XOM close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+6.03%	+4.28%	Est. Up ≥ 160.72 (-6.6%) · Est. Down < 120.50
Trend · XLE	1 Established Up (+) →	+0.94%	+0.29%	Est. Up ≥ 167.98 (-2.4%) · Est. Down < 162.91
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+4.09%	+4.86%	Est. Up ≥ 166.24 (-3.4%) · Est. Down < 144.65
Trading · XLE	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+0.35%	+0.72%	Est. Up ≥ 172.15 (+0.0%) · Est. Down < 161.24

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 172.15)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	202.03–202.03	+17.4% to +17.4%	161.8% ext. 202.03
R2	186.52–187.69	+8.3% to +9.0%	channel top 186.52 · 127.2% ext. 187.69
R1	176.41–176.41	+2.5% to +2.5%	ATH 03-30 176.41
S1	169.64–169.64	-1.5% to -1.5%	wk high 09-18 169.64
S2	159.27–163.85	-4.8% to -7.5%	20-day SMA 163.85 · wk high 05-22 163.68 · 50-day SMA 161.90 · low 04-01 159.53 · low 09-29 159.27
S3	154.15–158.75	-7.8% to -10.5%	low 09-08 158.75 · low 08-13 157.43 · low 09-22 155.85 · low 08-28 155.32 · low 03-23 155.02 · 100-day SMA 154.15
Targets	202.03 · 243.49	+17.4% · +41.4%	161.8% / 261.8% extensions of the 176.41 → 134.95 pullback · 2-yr channel top 186.52

Coppock, breadth and RS

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 169.64 (-1.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 159.27–163.85.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown): Friday close < 159.27 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 154.15–158.75.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 160.72 (-6.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 160.72 · Est. Down < 120.50 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 166.24 · Est. Down < 144.65.

Sluymer context

CB Sep 22: Energy stocks “remain in positive long-term technical profiles but most are pulling back from short-term overbought levels… illustrated by MPC, XOM and CVX.”
CB Sep 22 p49: “XOM’s longer-term profile remains positive but with a pullback from resistance underway. Key support is near the 50-62% retracement levels between 148-152.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLE relative to the S&P is Est. Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Mon, Oct 12, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 9 week. Holder levels: Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above it; Trade Breakdown = 40-wk SMA if between Trend Breakdown and price (or already broken), else the S1 floor; Trend Breakdown = trend stop (S2 floor). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 10/09 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $176.41	+2.5%	top of R1 (ATH 03-30)
Profit-Taking Zone rebalance if overweight	$186.52–187.69	+8.3% to +9.0%	channel top, 127.2% ext.
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $169.64	-1.5%	floor of first-support band S1 (169.64)
Trend Breakdown trim/sell if story weakened	Friday close below $159.27	-7.5%	trend stop; next support $154.15–158.75

XOM

Trend health

Key levels for holders